Naoya Inoue vs. Ramon Cardenas: Who Wins?

How Motivated Will ‘The Monster’ Be As The Heavy Betting Favorite

When you are as destructive as Inoue with the moniker of ‘The Monster,’ it’s very easy to fall in love with it all and take your foot off the pedal regarding work ethic. The quote, “It’s tough to get out of bed to do roadwork at 5 am when you’ve been sleeping in silk pajamas,” from the legend Marvelous Marvin Hagler, comes to mind. Inoue is 32 and has been a pro for 15 years. At the smaller weight classes, this is already the point where you show chinks in the armor. With Inoue, we have seen that at times, but it is not consistently enough for someone to say he is on the decline.

Now we have this fight against Cardenas, which Inoue is a beyond favorite to win according to the oddsmakers, and there is a roadmap to a super-fight with fellow countryman Junto Nakatani for 2026. Some may say that the thought of a super-fight that far down the road is too aggressive, but when you have the mindset of an elite fighter, it all just seems normal to you. With the millions he has made in Japan throughout his career, how can he get up for this fight against Cardenas? It’s hard to say, but if the media workout held in LA is any indication of Inoue’s mindset coming into Sunday, we may be in for a short main event.

How does Inoue beat Cardenas? One thing that Cardenas does is throw looping shots at times and keeps his left hand low. This is problematic, as an elite fighter like Inoue will take advantage of that. Look for Inoue to test Cardena’s chin early but then focus on the body before trying to end it with a straight right hand or a left hook to the body.

Ramon Cardenas Looks To Have A ‘Rocky’ Moment

Cardenas is cool as a cucumber heading into the biggest fight of his career; at least, that is what he appears to be on the outside. He’s heard all of the fans and media who aren’t giving him a shot against Inoue, but instead of being bothered by it, he’s using it as fuel to help him navigate the sharky waters of fighting an elite guy like Inoue. After speaking to him on a Zoom call and seeing him at the LA media workout, Cardenas isn’t buying into the whole ‘Monster’ image and just sees another man he will be facing in a fight that could change his life forever.

As fans know, anything could happen in the ring that could sway things in your favor. Inoue suffered a nasty cut in the first Nonito Donaire fight that almost cost him the decision. Injuries, headbutts, and cuts are all part of the game and can happen anytime. Cardenas could fall into a situation where Inoue is compromised, and he capitalizes off of it. Although it looks unlikely, you never know.

For Cardenas to win, he must get Inoue’s respect right from the start and show him that he isn’t intimidated. He has to be smart with his pressure and keep his hands up. A punch that has landed on Inoue is the straight right hand to the head, so Cardenas should aim to land that early. If Cardenas can use smart pressure and keep the fight outside of Inoue’s 67 ½” reach, he may have a shot at pulling an upset. We are just days away from seeing if Cardenas can do just that.

Naoya Inoue vs Ramon Cardenas Prediction

Although Cardenas is a tough contender, the difference in levels will be clear from the start, and Inoue will stop Cardenas with a straight right hand in rounds 5-7.

Naoya Inoue vs Ramon Cardenas Betting Odds

Per DraftKings SportsBook, Naoya Inoue is the favorite at -5000, and Ramon Cardenas is the underdog at +1500.

Naoya Inoue: TKO/KO -1000; Decision +600

Draw: +2500

Ramon Cardenas: TKO/KO +2500; Decision +3500

Naoya Inoue vs Ramon Cardenas Date, Start Time

• Date: Sunday, May 4
• Start time: 6:15 p.m. ET / 3:15 p.m. PT
• Main event ringwalks (approx): 11:00 p.m. ET / 8:00 p.m. PT

These timings could change due to the length of the undercard fights.

What Channel/Stream Is Naoya Inoue vs Ramon Cardenas?

• U.S.: ESPN, ESPN+ & ESPN Deportes
• UK:   Sky Sports