20 teams who can win the NCAA tournament

Could Alabama be this year's version of UConn? The Tide once sat at 6-5 after a three-game losing streak, but have caught fire of late and are atop the SEC standings. How did this happen? Well, Alabama needed to time to gel. The team that had Brandon Miller and was a No. 1 seed last year returned just one starter -- Mark Sears, who is averaging over 20 ppg. Transfers Aaron Estrada (Hofstra), Grant Nelson (North Dakota State) and Latrell Wrightsell (Fullerton) are getting used to Nate Oats' system, though freshmen Sam Waters and Jarin Stevenson still struggle to find their roles. This team can score and they are hot right now. Oh, and those earlier losses were to Ohio State, Clemson, Purdue, Creighton and Arizona (and, since then, Tennessee). This team is peaking. 

Arizona may be the biggest boom-or-bust team of the tournament, which is all to familiar for Wildcat fans. Arizona has gone into Durham and beat Duke and blew out Wisconsin while losing to Oregon State and Stanford (giving up 100 points to the Cardinal). At issue with Arizona is that the losses are more recent than those wins and that's sort of what's been happening with the Cats. What was once a very diverse team has sort of bogged down into more of the Caleb Love show (36 points at Oregon) when the other guys are struggling. That was Love's issue at North Carolina -- when he's hot it is a thing of beauty, but when the shots aren't falling it is beyond frustrating. That isn't Love's fault as guys like Kylan Boswell and Pelle Larsson have been wildly inconsistent offensively while center Oumar Ballo can get forgotten about. If Tommy Lloyd can get those guys back on track there is no reason to believe that Arizona won't be dangerous in the NCAAs. 

Auburn's ability make a deep NCAA tournament run will depend on finding consistency on the perimeter. K.D. Johnson and Tre Donaldson are outstanding defenders but aren't the offensive threats like the Tigers backcourt that made a Final Four run in 2019. Bruce Pearl can rely on big man Johni Broome and forward Jaylin Williams. Broome leads the team in scoring and rebounding while Williams gives the Tigers an outside threat -- provided he can return healthy after an injury against Kentucky. Metrics love Auburn, but will that translate to wins in March?

Two newcomers will be key to how far Baylor will go this March. Transfer RayJ Dennis was the MAC Player of the Year last season at Toledo and has brought his playmaking skills to Waco. He's averaging over 13 points and nearly 7 assists per game as his become less of a scorer (he averaged 19 ppg last season at Toledo) and more or a distributor. That's easier to do when you have McDonald's All-American Ja'Kobe Walter having a fantastic freshman season. He's a two-way player who has a smooth offensive game and the size and length to defend multiple positions. Like typical Scott Drew teams, this is a dangerous three-point shooting (sixth man Langston Love is shooting nearly 50% from behind the arc) with size and athleticism that give anyone fits.  The Bears are one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country 

Yes, you're reading that right -- the BYU Cougars. Just hear me out. I just mentioned metrics for Auburn and the same could be said for BYU. The Cougars at one time was a Top 25 ranked team in KenPom's adjusted offense and adjusted defense ... something every NCAA tournament champion has been since 2002. The Cougars defense, however, has started to slide. BYU did lose four of six during a stretch where forward Fousseyni Traore was banged up. He's getting healthier, and his 24 points in a win over West Virginia could be a sign that the Cougars will be a tough out in March. This is a very deep team (ten players average at least 12.5 minutes, and only Dallin Hall averages more than 27 minutes per game) and one of the top three-point shooting teams in the nation (only North Florida makes more per game). A deep team that can shoot threes is a recipe for tournament success. Maybe the Cougars ... who now play through the grind of the Big 12 ... will be ready for anything in March. 

It's so difficult to put your finger on Creighton. They're routinely that buzz team that could make a deep run if they put it all together ... they just rarely do. This year is no different, as the Bluejays are one of the better-scoring teams in the nation, and they hit a lot of threes. Stars Trey Alexander, Baylor Scheierman and Ryan Kalkbrenner are relied on heavily to lead this team ... and they are typically up for the challenge. Kalkbrenner is one of the best defensive big men in the country, Scheierman is a long-range gunner, and Alexander is a do-everything guard whose three-point shooting has cratered this season (he made 41% of his threes last year; under 30% this season). The Jays reached the Elite Eight last season and have their sites on taking the next step next month. 

Why can't Dayton do what Florida Atlantic did last season? Dayton has a stud in DaRon Holmes II. Holmes is averaging 20 points, nearly 8 boards, 2.2 blocks and is shooting 40% from three. He's a 6-10 forward who can play in the paint, on the perimeter and who can create his own shot. He's an NBA talent who will give anyone problems. Behind him is a very thin rotation -- six players average over 27 minutes per game -- that hit threes at a high clip (Koby Brea is hitting 48% from behind the arc). Pitt transfer Nate Santos is a great compliment to Holmes II in the frontcourt: he's physical, hits the glass, and is a 43% three-point shooter. 

Duke may be flying a bit under the radar right now, which is rare. While much is made about their elite recruiting class, they also boast a very experienced team with Kyle Filipowski, Jeremy Roach, Tyrese Proctor and Mark Mitchell. Those guys will be leaned on heavily in March while Caleb Foster and Jared McCain get their feel for the Big Dance. McCain has started to show why he's either the future star for the Blue Devils are a 2024 NBA Draft pick. Duke isn't an extremely deep team, but their top six guys are as talented a group anywhere. 

Florida Atlantic ran it back this season after a magical Final Four run that nearly saw them play for the national championship. While most of the time these mid-majors don't see anything remotely close to repeat success, the Owls hope they can repeat what Butler did in 2010-2011 by getting back to college basketball's biggest stage. All five starters came back from last year's Final Four team, including super guard Johnell Davis -- who is averaging nearly 19 pts, 7 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game and shooting 49% from three. Center Vlad Goldin is a paint presence, averaging over 14 ppg while shooting 67% from the field. FAU isn't a juggernaut -- they've lost to Bryant, Charlotte and Florida Gulf Coast this season -- but if they get into the tournament they can do damage.

This Houston Cougars team will always aggressively defend and they have two guards who can carry them to Phoenix. Baylor transfer LJ Cryer leads the Cougars in scoring while last year's leading scorer (and AAC Defensive Player of the Year) Jamal Shead is capable of dominating a game on both ends of the floor. That kind of combo works well in March and the kind of defense Kelvin Sampson demands from his team always travels well. Houston has a 10-man rotation that keeps themselves fresh while wearing out their opponents. They aren't the best shooting bunch, but their ability to attack the glass and defend at a high level will keep this team in any game. If this group can find ways to help their two leading scorers put the ball in the basket, they will find themselves back in the Final Four.

Illinois' fate may come from in the court and not on it. The school suspended leading scorer Terrence Shannon Jr. weeks after he was charged with a serious crime in Kansas. A judge has since reinstated him after a month of missed games, and he's starting to perform as he did prior to the suspension. Assuming he will continue to play this season, Shannon is what makes the Illini a Final Four team. He leads the team in scoring and is easily the straw that stirs the drink for Illinois. He's an NBA talent. Having said that, Illinois did alright in his absence (their only defeats came to Purdue and Maryland). Big man Coleman Hawkins and Southern Illinois transfer Marcus Domask stepped up their scoring which could be advantageous heading into March.  Illinois is one of the top rebounding teams in the nation due to their size across their entire starting lineup. They will have a four-day stretch in March where they'll play at Wisconsin and host Purdue that may show us all what this team is capable. 

Iowa State has always been able to play elite defense under head coach TJ Otzelberger, but now they have a trio of guys leading one of the more efficient offenses in the nation. Leading scorer Tamin Lipsey, freshman stretch big Milan Momcilovic and UNLV transfer Keshon Gilbert has added some offensive punch to that stifling defense which has allowed the 'Clones to be one of the better teams in close games. They've been outstanding in Ames, beating Houston, Kansas and TCU at home, but that hasn't carried over well away from Hilton Coliseum. They've shown they are capable of beating anybody, which will help their confidence in the Big Dance. Their little sign-stealing scandal against Kansas State hasn't stopped other college teams from having postseason success. 

The preseason No. 1 team hasn't looked as invincible as we originally thought, but they have all the goods to win their second national championship in three years. Michigan transfer Hunter Dickinson has done his job -- averaging over 18 points and 11 rebounds a game -- to anchor a very talented, albeit lean, roster. Kevin McCullar Jr. is an elite scoring wing who is more than capable enough to dominate the NCAA Tournament. Point guard Dajuan Harris was the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year last season and is great at disrupting the opponents ability to run their offense. The rise of freshman Johnny Furphy in recent weeks has given the Jayhawks some much-needed depth. 

There may be no bigger disparity between ceiling and floor than the Kentucky Wildcats. This is one of the best scoring teams in the nation due to their athleticism mixed with the ability to hit a lot of threes (they are currently the top three-point shooting team in the country). However, it is also one of the worst defensive teams in the power conferences, which usually doesn't bode well in the tournament. The Wildcats could either cut down the nets in Phoenix or have a St. Peter's-esque upset in the first round once again. This list is more about why they could win it, so let's address that -- their freshmen class of Rob Dillingham, DJ Wagner and Reed Sheppard can do damage on anyone who gets in their way. But John Calipari has mixed his young group with experienced guys like leading scorer Antonio Reeves and Tre Mitchell who can carry the team if the young guys struggle. The key could come down to Kentucky's bigs -- Aaron Bradshaw, Ugonna Onyenso and Zvonimir Ivisic -- and how they hold up in a tournament format. There are a lot of great bigs in this tournament and Kentucky needs these young guys to meet the challenge. 

Marquette already has wins over Kansas, Illinois, Texas and Creighton, and also some puzzling losses to Providence and Butler. The Golden Eagles have an All-America talent in Tyler Kolek, the defending Big East Player of the Year, who has been on a tear over the last several weeks. They also have a force in the paint in 6-11 Oso Ighodaro to anchor their defense and who has developed his offensive game. Like most Shaka Smart teams, Marquette is one of the better teams at creating turnovers -- they lead the Big East in steals -- and creating transition scoring opportunities.  Two upcoming games against UConn will not only test the Golden Eagles as they prepare for a deep tournament run but show us if they are even capable of doing so. 

The Tar Heels have done a great job putting their disappointing 2022-2023 season in the rearview mirror. They still boast big man Armando Bacot, who has greatly improved his defense to add to being a double-double machine, and R.J. Davis, who has been one of the most explosive guards in the nation. Davis can score from all three levels and is one of the top free throw shooters in America. Stanford transfer Harrison Ingram has been a huge pickup. He is a hybrid forward who can hit from deep, blow by slower big men and overpower smaller wings ... and he has become a monster on the boards over the past few weeks. Having a great guard and a vastly improved defense are keys to success in March. They've suffered a strange swoon of late, losing three games in a five game span, but have what it takes to return to the Final Four. 

This tournament is what this season is all about. Purdue has an earned reputation of laying a big egg in the Big Dance -- capped by last year becoming just the second No. 1 seed to lose to a No. 16 seed -- that everyone was compelled to come back to redeem themselves. Zach Edey could win Player of the Year honors once again, while grad transfer Lance Jones has been a huge addition to returnees Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and Mason Gillis. This team has everything to win it all ... just as they did in 2023 and 2022. They just have to do it. Like Virginia in 2019, Purdue may be the best team in the country but no one will believe in them until they show it in the tournament. 

The Vols are physical, defensive-minded minded and have an elite scorer which makes them a dangerous team in March. Northern Colorado transfer Dalton Knecht has been fantastic for Rick Barnes' bunch, averaging over 20 ppg this season and is the guy the offense runs through. The defense is the calling card, and experienced players like Santiago Vescovi, Zakai Zeigler and Josiah-Jordan James are perfect glue guys who will work hard on defense and hit timely shots. Can big-man Jonas Aidoo bring it? His ability to defense and add paint scoring could be what finally gets Tennessee to the Final Four. 

UConn is trying to become the first program since Florida in 2006 and 2007 to repeat as national champions. While Florida ran it back for their consecutive titles, Dan Hurley's bunch is trying to do it with a retooled squad. Donovan Clingan has stepped into Adama Sanogo's shoes and has wore them well. Rutgers transfer Cam Spencer provides a lethal scoring threat and someone who won't back down from anybody. Freshman Stephon Castle is getting better as the season has moved along, though his consistency needs to be better. Oh, and Tristen Newton continues to be a do-everything player who leads the Huskies in scoring, rebounds and assists. UConn can beat you in a variety of ways and can play against pretty much any style. And they've been as dominant as anyone in the country this year. 

Wisconsin could be this year's version of the 2022-2023 UConn Huskies. Greg Gard continues Bo Ryan's philosophy of tough defense mixed with efficient offense. Well, Gard's Badgers have one of the most efficient offenses in the entire country despite the defense not being as strong as usual. Despite using a slower tempo, the Badgers are averaging nearly 76 points per game. How? While other teams may have experience in terms of games played at the collegiate level, Wisconsin not only has that but this team has been acquiring their experience together. Max Klesmit is a strong shooter (over 41% from three). If games get close, five Badgers in the rotation shoot over 80% from the free-throw line.