ESPN BPI Predicts Winner of 2025 NCAA Tournament National Championship

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By Spencer Ostrow | Last updated Mar 29, 2025 10:32 AM ET

The 2025 NCAA Tournament's Sweet 16 is officially over, as fans look ahead to the Elite Eight.

The Elite Eight features four high-level matchups, two of which are on Saturday: No. 3 seed Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Florida (West) and Alabama vs. No. 1 seed Duke (East). The action continues on Sunday with No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 1 Houston (Midwest) and No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 1 Auburn (South).

Immediately following the conclusion of the last Sweet 16 game, ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) updated. The BPI considers various metrics, such as each team's offensive and defensive strength, strength of schedule, record, and more, to determine rankings and projections.

The computer-based system also predicts each team's chances of winning the National Championship.

The team with the best odds is the Duke Blue Devils, who have a 29.3% likelihood of winning it all.

There's no other word to describe Duke this college basketball season other than "dominant." Entering Saturday's game against Alabama, the Blue Devils are 34-3 and haven't lost a game since Feb. 8 (Clemson).

They are led by ACC Player of the Year and Oscar Robertson National Player of the Year Cooper Flagg. Flagg is a true freshman who leads the team across all five major statistical categories: scoring (19.0 PPG), rebounding (7.5 RPG), assists (4.3 APG), steals (1.4 SPG), and blocks (1.3 BPG).

Also, Duke is as balanced on both ends of the court as can be. According to KenPom's efficiency ratings, the Blue Devils rank first in offense and third in defense.

Here's each team's chances to win the National Championship: