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Stats show only seven teams could win men's NCAA Tournament
Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer in the second half of the 2025 ACC Conference Championship game against the Louisville Cardinals at Spectrum Center. Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

These stats show only seven teams could win men's NCAA Tournament

March Madness is the best tournament in sports because of the wild upsets no one sees coming. For as many Cinderella runs as we've seen through the years, though, those teams never end up winning the national championship.

Since 2001, 23 of 24 champions entered the NCAA Tournament ranked 21st or better in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency, and 22 ranked 31st or better in defensive efficiency. That leaves us a small pool of just eight teams to pick from to decide our national champion, but we're narrowing it down to seven because Iowa State ruled out starting point guard Keshon Gilbert for the rest of the season. 

With those historical parameters in mind, let's meet our seven title contenders.

Duke Blue Devils

Overall ranking: 1
Off. efficiency ranking: 3
Def. efficiency ranking: 4

Duke isn't just the highest-rated team in KenPom's efficiency metric this season. The Blue Devils' +38.15 net rating is the highest since KenPom's inception. This is the best college basketball team we've seen this century, at least from an efficiency standpoint. Duke has the best player in the country in Cooper Flagg, and it can go nine or 10 deep without much of a dropoff to the second unit.

Florida Gators

Overall ranking: 2
Off. efficiency ranking: 1
Def. efficiency ranking: 10

Good luck slowing down Florida's offense, which ranks No. 1 in KenPom with its 128.6 rating. The Gators have won 12 of their last 13 games, a dominant stretch that included wins against Auburn, Alabama (twice), Missouri, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Tennessee.

Houston Cougars

Overall ranking: 3
Off. efficiency ranking: 10
Def. efficiency ranking: 2

Houston has reached at least the Sweet 16 in four straight NCAA Tournaments, and this might be the best group of Kelvin Sampson's tenure. The Cougars are elite in nearly every defensive metric, and they rank fourth in the country in three-point shooting percentage (39.8 percent). If the outside shots are falling, Houston can go all the way.

Auburn Tigers

Overall ranking: 4
Off. efficiency ranking: 2
Def. efficiency ranking: 12

Auburn held the top spot in KenPom for much of the regular season, but it stumbled late with three losses in its last four games. Still, it's no surprise the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament fits the historical criteria of a national championship contender.

Tennessee Volunteers

Overall ranking: 5
Off. efficiency ranking: 18
Def. efficiency ranking: 3

Tennessee barely cracks this list due to its 18th-ranked offense, which is the side of the ball that always trips up Rick Barnes' teams in the NCAA Tournament. The Vols rank 166th in the country in three-point shooting percentage (34.0 percent) and 172nd in field goals made per game (25.8). But, like Houston, Tennessee can win the title if it gets hot from three.

Gonzaga Bulldogs

Overall ranking: 9
Off. efficiency ranking: 9
Def. efficiency ranking: 29

Here's where it gets interesting. Gonzaga is the most criminally underseeded team in the field this year, as it ranks ninth overall in KenPom but fell to an 8 seed. The Bulldogs could face Houston in the Round of 32, which would be an early treat for us fans but a brutal break for whichever team loses that matchup. 

Wisconsin Badgers

Overall ranking: 13
Off. efficiency ranking: 13
Def. efficiency ranking: 27

Wisconsin barely squeaks in with a defensive efficiency ranking of 27, but it would be a surprise if the Badgers end up cutting down the nets in San Antonio. 

Jack Dougherty

Jack Dougherty has been writing professionally since 2015, contributing to publications such as GoPSUSports. com, Centre Daily Times, Associated Press, and Sportscasting. com

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