Alabama vs. Florida State new football prediction: What the analytics say

No. 8 Alabama hits the road for the 2025 season opener against Florida State in a marquee non-conference college football clash. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the matchup from an analytical model that simulates games and picks winners.

Alabama enters Year Two under head coach Kalen DeBoer, hoping to improve from his 9-4 debut a year ago, but making a major change at the most important position on the field.

Ty Simpson steps in at quarterback with five-star pedigree but limited experience, stepping in for the dual-threat playmaker Jalen Milroe, now in the NFL.

Who is Florida State? If it’s anything like last season’s 2-10 disaster, then head coach Mike Norvell will be in serious trouble. 

Thomas Castellanos takes over at quarterback, among other notable transfers, to ensure that won’t happen again, but this first test is as tough as they come in college football.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Alabama vs. Florida State football prediction

As expected, the computer models are siding with the Crimson Tide against their ACC counterparts, and by a considerable margin, too.

Alabama is the major favorite in the game, projected to win outright in 90.6 percent of the computer’s simulations for the matchup.

That leaves Florida State as the presumptive winner in the remaining 9.4 percent of sims.

In total, the Crimson Tide come out ahead in 18,120 of the computer’s projections for the matchup, while Florida State edges out Alabama in the other 1,880 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Alabama is projected to be 17.1 points better than Florida State on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be enough for the Tide to cover the spread against the Seminoles.

That’s because Alabama is a 13.5 point favorite against Florida State, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 50.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Alabama at -550 and for Florida State at +400 to win the game outright.

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Where the money is going

A plurality of bettors expect the Crimson Tide to take care of business against the Seminoles in the opener, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Alabama is getting a majority 65 percent of bets to win the game by at least two touchdowns and cover the spread against Florida State.

The remaining 35 percent of wagers project the Seminoles will either upset the Crimson Tide outright, or lose the game by fewer than 14 points.

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Alabama vs. Florida State future projections

Alabama debuted in the No. 3 position nationally on the index’s complete 136-team college football rankings heading into the Week 1 opener.

The model forecasts the Crimson Tide will be 20.7 points better than an average opponent on a neutral field this season.

That projection finds Alabama winning 9.5 games this season with a 71.4 percent chance to win the SEC, in third place behind Georgia (19.9%) and Texas (37.4%).

Florida State checks in at No. 65 overall in the team rankings, and is expected to be o.3 points better than an average opponent, according to the index’s forecast.

The model projects the Seminoles will win 5.3 games in 2025 with a 44.2 percent shot to become bowl eligible at year’s end.

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College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

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How good is it?

How accurate has the College Football Power Index computer prediction model been in recent memory? Last season, it was one of a select few to surpass the 70 percent success threshold.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

And it was one of a select few models that went over 50 percent when making its predictions against the spread, coming out ahead in 52.235 percent of its ATS projections. That was good for second-best among all college football prediction models among 55 various outlets.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

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How to watch Alabama vs. Florida State

When: Sat., Aug. 30
Where: Tallahassee, Fla.

Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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