Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green Prediction: Red Wolves Face Falcons in 68 Ventures Bowl

Arkansas State and Bowling Green are regulars in the 68 Ventures Bowl, which has undergone several name changes in its quarter-century existence, but they’ve never been there in the same season. That changes on Thursday when the Red Wolves and Falcons make their fifth and fourth appearances in the game, respectively.

Under head coach Butch Jones, Arkansas State (7-5) has made incremental improvements each year, culminating in the program’s first winning season since 2019. The Red Wolves had an affinity for tight games as all but one of their victories were by one score.

Bowling Green (7-5) was rolling in the second half of the season before falling to Miami (Ohio) in the regular-season finale to miss out on a trip to the MAC championship. Coach Scot Loeffler’s squad is battle-tested from a brutal nonconference schedule, which included trips to Penn State and Texas A&M. The Falcons are seeking their first bowl victory since 2014.

Loeffler and Jones crossed paths when they were on staff at Central Michigan in the early 2000s, but these programs have played only once before. Bowling Green beat Arkansas State in 1974.

How to watch Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green, game odds

Location: Hancock Whitney Stadium in Mobile, Ala.
Kickoff: Thursday, Dec. 26 at 9 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Spread: Bowling Green -7.5
Over/Under: 52.5
Announcers: Clay Matvick, Roddy Jones, Ashley Stroehlein

Why Arkansas State Will Win

A shootout might be the best scenario for the Red Wolves, who have let a few games get away from them but went 3-1 when scoring 30-plus points. Arkansas State quarterback Jaylen Raynor has thrown three touchdowns in back-to-back games, and he’s flashed his dual-threat abilities in spurts, like his 114-yard rushing output in a win over Georgia State. Raynor has a great connection with wide receiver Corey Rucker, who leads the team with 65 receptions for 946 yards and five scores, but they have a tough matchup against Bowling Green’s stout secondary.

Defensively, the Red Wolves will have a tough time stopping the Falcons, specifically All-America tight end Harold Fannin Jr. Arkansas State gives up more than 30 points and well over 200 rushing yards per game, but Bowling Green isn’t an especially dynamic rushing team. All-Sun Belt safety Trevian Thomas might need to make a few plays in the secondary, like he did in the Red Wolves’ win over ULM, to keep Falcons quarterback Connor Bazelak honest.