Utah Utes running back NaQuari Rogers (21) runs the ball against the UCLA Bruins during the first half at Rose Bowl. Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

ESPN's advanced metrics predict how Utah's home opener vs. Cal Poly will play out

Originally posted on Utah Utes on SI | By Cole Forsman | Last updated Sep 4, 2025 4:34 PM ET

Coming off a dominant win over UCLA, Utah will look to keep its momentum rolling on Saturday when Cal Poly visits Salt Lake City for a matchup at Rice-Eccles Stadium.

Utes head coach Kyle Whittingham has made it clear he and his team aren't overlooking the FSC constituent Mustangs in their preparation process, though prognosticators aren't expecting a close outcome in the lead-up to gameday.

While a majority of sportsbooks don't have an official betting line set, ESPN's advanced metrics and analytics algorithms have forecasted how Saturday's contest at Rice-Eccles Stadium — featuring the return of "Red Thunder" — will play out.

ESPN SP+ predicts blowout victory for Utes

ESPN SP+, an advanced college football rating system developed by ESPN analyst Bill Connelly, projects Utah's margin of victory over Cal Poly will be among the widest for any victorious team in Week 2.

Connelly's formula has the Utes cruising to a 49-3 win over the Mustangs, with an estimated margin of 45.6 points between the two. Only a handful of FBS-FCS matchups are projected to be more lopsided, including Miami-Bethune Cookman (64.8), Ohio State-Grambling State (61.3), Georgia-Austin Peay (53.7), Florida State-East Texas A&M (53.4) and Minnesota-Northwestern State (47.8).

In addition to calculating final scores for each matchup, ESPN SP+ ranks teams based on their assigned numeric rating, typically expressed as a margin of points per game against an average FBS opponent. For instance, Utah's 15.5 rating indicates its 15.5 points better than the average FBS team, and places the Utes as the No. 19 team in the latest ESPN SP+ rankings.

ESPN SP+ also takes into account teams' offensive and defensive efficiency margins. Utah ranks No. 42 in offensive efficiency and No. 8 in defensive efficiency after its impressive win over UCLA.

ESPN matchup predictor heavily favors Utes

ESPN's matchup predictor echoes the sentiment its SP+ ratings have for Utah's home opener, as the Utes boast a 99% win probability rate heading into Saturday's contest.

ESPN analytics weren't high on the Utes entering the season, though that narrative has started to shift since ESPN's metrics falsely predicted the outcome of Utah's season opener. The Utes, who were previously favored in just five of their 12 regular season games, now hold the higher win probability rate over all their opponents except for two (Oct. 18 at BYU, Nov. 28 at Kansas).

This article first appeared on Utah Utes on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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