ESPN's Analytics Predicts Illinois at Duke in Week 2: Do the Numbers Lie?

Moving on to Week 2, Illinois is set to face a solid Duke squad on the road in Durham, North Carolina, in a matchup of 1-0 teams. The Blue Devils, similar to the Illini, faced a weak opponent to kick off their season – FCS program Elon – and also took care of business, cruising to a 45-17 victory.

Naturally, ESPN’s FPI predictor has been updated to account for both Duke's and Illinois’ season debuts, and it has since made its pick. But despite the Illini holding the position of the No. 12 team in the country – a number that may rise a spot in Tuesday’s AP poll – and Duke remaining unranked (it did receive six votes in the preseason poll), ESPN’s analytics have settled on the Blue Devils to win, if not by much.

In fact, the metrics essentially see the Saturday morning contest as a toss-up, giving Duke a 50.6 percent chance of prevailing at home, while Illinois has a 49.4 percent probability of pulling off the “upset."

Illinois on SI take

Let’s not get it twisted: Duke is a very good football team. Head coach Manny Diaz enters his second year at the helm, seeking to build off last year’s momentum (a 9-4 season). Quarterback Darian Mensah was the No. 7 quarterback in the transfer portal (from Tulane), per 247Sports, and he lived up to the billing – and then some – in the Blue Devils’ opener. 

Click here for a closer look at what Illinois must do to slow down Mensah

Then again, although Duke is good, Illinois is very good – maybe even better. The No. 12 team in the country for a reason, the Illini have a poised veteran presence at quarterback in Luke Altmyer, a three-headed monster at running back and a lethal pass-rushing attack spearheaded by outside linebacker Gabe Jacas.

Sure, the Blue Devils have home-field advantage, but Wallace Wade Stadium is a far cry from Cameron Indoor. Does Duke have a shot in Week 2? Absolutely. But should the Blue Devils be considered the favorite in this matchup? Absolutely not.