Alabama vs. Michigan: ReliaQuest Bowl odds, prediction

Alabama and Michigan square off in the 2024 ReliaQuest Bowl game on New Year’s Eve. Let’s look at how the oddsmakers are predicting the matchup.

Alabama was the first team left out of the College Football Playoff, in favor of ACC runner-up SMU, a decision that doesn’t sit well with Crimson Tide fans.

Defending national champion Michigan beat Bama in the Rose Bowl semifinal a year ago en route to winning it all, but come in at 7-5 this year and looking to end on a high note.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Alabama vs. Michigan: ReliaQuest Bowl odds, picks

The bookies favor the SEC team by a wide margin over its Big Ten opposition.

Alabama is an 11.5 point favorite against Michigan, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the matchup.

FanDuel lists the total at 43.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Alabama at -480 and for Michigan at +360 to win outright.

Alabama: -11.5 (-110)
Michigan: +11.5 (-110)

Over 43.5 points: -110
Under 43.5 points: -110

Alabama vs. Michigan trends

Alabama is 7-5 against the spread (58.3%) overall this season ...

Michigan is 5-7 (41.7%) ATS in ‘24 ...

Alabama is 4-1 against the spread in its last 5 games ...

Michigan is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games ...

Alabama is 17-3 straight-up in its last 20 games as the favorite ...

Michigan is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games against an SEC opponent ...

Bama is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games against Big Ten teams ...

The total went over in 6 of Michigan’s last 9 games ...

The total went under in 5 of Alabama’s last 6 games ...

The total went over in 15 of Michigan’s last 20 games as the underdog ...

Spread consensus pick, score prediction

The vast majority of bettors are taking the Crimson Tide over the Wolverines, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Alabama is getting 86 percent of bets to win the game and cover the big point spread.

The other 14 percent of wagers project Michigan will either win the game outright in an upset or keep the game under 12 points in a loss.

The game’s implied total suggests a comfortable victory for the Crimson Tide.

When taking the point spread and total into consideration, it’s implied that Alabama will defeat Michigan by a projected score of 28 to 16.

Our early pick: Alabama -11.5 ... Michigan has some bodies up front defensively who can contest the Tide’s blockers on the line, but Alabama has too many skill threats who can get behind the Wolverines’ secondary.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

College Football Playoff bracket

No. 12 Clemson at
No. 5 Texas

Winner plays No. 4 Arizona State

No. 11 SMU at
No. 6 Penn State

Winner plays No. 3 Boise State

No. 10 Indiana at
No. 7 Notre Dame

Winner plays No. 2 Georgia

No. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Ohio State

Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

College Football Playoff rankings

1. Oregon
2. Georgia
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Notre Dame
6. Ohio State
7. Tennessee
8. Indiana
9. Boise State
10. SMU
11. Alabama
12. Arizona State
13. Miami
14. Ole Miss 
15. South Carolina
16. Clemson
17. BYU
18. Iowa State
19. Missouri
20. Illinois
21. Syracuse
22. Army
23. Colorado
24. UNLV
25. Memphis

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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