Back Chargers in strong AFC West

Hitting that +200 parlay yesterday did feel great, thank you for asking. While we will have a prop play for the MLB slate today, we'd like to use today's intro to start chatting NFL. Let’s talk about two AFC teams in particular who offer some solid value to win their division.

Picking a winner in the loaded AFC West — There's no denying the AFC West is the cream of the crop for the 2022 NFL season. It returns two playoff teams from last year, the Chiefs and Raiders, along with two teams that drastically improved this offseason in the Chargers and Broncos. Kansas City and Patrick Mahomes have been AFC Championship stalwarts for the past four years, but our attention is headed to Los Angeles. Justin Herbert has already "broken out" by the proverbial standards. He won Rookie of the Year in 2020 and surpassed 5,000 yards this past year. It still feels like another step is coming, and we already put some money on him winning MVP. While Herbert runs the offense, it's the defense that can lead the Chargers to a division crown. The team added difference-makers in Khalil Mack, JC Jackson and Kyle Van Noy, and secured a new contract for star safety Derwin James. This list doesn't even include Joey Bosa, one of the top defensive ends in the league. The Chargers have invested in their offensive line and have everything in place for a strong 2022 season.

Betting: Chargers to Win the AFC West (+220 DK)

Banking on a back-to-back division crown — The Baltimore Ravens had their health issues in 2021 and still came close to making the playoffs, so yes, it's fair to see them as the favorites to win the AFC North. However, it feels like the Super Bowl losers from this past season in Cincinnati are slowly going under the radar as the season approaches. This offense was as explosive as it gets, with the Joe Burrow to Ja'Marr Chase connection leading the way. The Bengals put plenty of resources into shoring up their offensive line and protecting Burrow, which should allow this offense to operate at an even higher level. The Cincy defense grew stronger as the season progressed, led by a strong defensive line and secondary. There is no concern from us that Burrow will be ready for the season after an appendectomy in July. We're going back to the Bengals.

Betting: Bengals to Win the AFC North (+170 DK)

MLB Bet of the Day 

We can't leave you hanging on the daily MLB picks after crushing that +200 hits parlay together yesterday. We're sticking with the props, as it's a market that has been quite good to us this summer.

Alek Manoah 6+ Ks & Jordan Montgomery 4+ Ks (+101 FD)

Alek Manoah has piled up strikeout totals of seven, eight and eight in his past three starts, and now gets a Pittsburgh team striking out at the sixth-highest rate vs RHPs. The Pirates' wRC+ is 28th in the league against righties, suggesting they'll have difficulties making Manoah uncomfortable tonight. The Blue Jays hurler has gone for 6+ strikeouts in six of his last nine starts.

Jordan Montgomery has gone for 4+ Ks in four straight and 21 of 26 starts this season. In two starts against the Cubs, Montgomery has finished with strikeout totals of five and seven. Chicago is fanning at the 10th-highest rate vs lefties over the last month, and their wRC+ is second-to-last. It looks like 4+ is a safe floor for Montgomery, and he could be a good candidate to bet on straight at a higher number. He's finished with 6+ strikeouts in four of his last six starts.

In the news ...

Donovan Mitchell traded to the Cavs —  The Donovan Mitchell shoe finally dropped yesterday afternoon. It wasn't the long-rumored Knicks, but the Cleveland Cavaliers who swooped in to land the star guard from Utah. The trade included guard Collin Sexton, among others, and multiple first-round picks. Shortly after the news dropped, Cleveland's odds to win the title skyrocketed. The Cavs opened the day at +9000 to win it all, with the odds flying as high as +3000 once the announcement was made. The market has cooled off a bit, with Cleveland now sitting at +3500 to win the 2023 championship on DraftKings.

U.S. Open heads into the heart of the tournament this weekend — The third round hits the court throughout today for both the men's and women's sides in the U.S. Open, with plenty left to be determined before a winner is crowned. World No. 1 Daniil Medvedev is favored on the men's side at +175, followed by No. 2 Rafael Nadal at +300. Medvedev won here in 2021 and was the runner-up in 2019. So often in tennis we see that familiarity reigns supreme, so it's hard to ignore the Russian at +175 here. He has yet to drop a set.

Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll