Florida vs. Texas A&M score prediction by expert football model

Florida pays a visit to No. 5 Texas A&M in a notable SEC clash as college football’s Week 7 action gets underway on Saturday. Here is the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that simulates games and projects scores.

Florida improved to 2-3 and stopped a three-game losing streak with a signature victory over then-9th ranked Texas, but is still yet to score more than 30 points in a game since the season opener, ranking 98th nationally in scoring coming into this weekend.

Texas A&M moved to 2-0 in SEC play and is still undefeated through five games after victories against Auburn and Mississippi State that showed off how well this defense can play, allowing 19 combined points in those games.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Aggies welcome the Gators in this SEC clash?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Florida and Texas A&M compare in this Week 7 college football game.

Florida vs. Texas A&M score prediction

That win streak for the Gators won’t get past one game this week if the models are right.

SP+ predicts that Texas A&M will defeat Florida by a projected score of 30 to 20 and will win the game by an expected margin of 10 points in the process.

The model gives the Aggies a solid 73 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 144-152 against the spread with a 48.6 win percentage. Last week, it was 25-25 (50%) in its picks against the spread.

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How to pick the game

The books are siding with the Aggies at home over the Gators, but the market sees a closer game.

Texas A&M is a 7.5 point favorite against Florida, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook entering the weekend.

FanDuel lists the total at 47.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Texas A&M at -275 and for Florida at +220 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take...

• Texas A&M -7.5
• Aggies to win -275
• Bet over 47.5 points

The game’s implied score suggests a close game at Kyle Field, but one that ultimately tilts in the Aggies’ direction to stay undefeated.

When taking the point spread and total into consideration, it’s implied that Texas A&M will defeat Florida by a projected score of 27 to 19.

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Computer prediction

Most other analytical football models also favor the Aggies over the Gators.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

Texas A&M is a comfortable favorite over the Gators, coming out ahead in 73.9 percent of the computer’s simulations of the game.

That leaves Florida as the presumptive winner in the remaining 26.1 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Texas A&M is projected to be 6.6 points better than Florida on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 74 percent of all games and hit 38 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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