2024 MLB Home Run Derby best bets, odds, picks for Mon. 7/15

Total Home Runs: Over 269.5 (-110, DraftKings)

By Sean Treppedi:

I’m leaning on the over for total long balls hit on Monday.

Since MLB last changed the Home Run Derby format from the old 10 outs per round system, the event has mustered more than 271 home runs four out of eight times — all of which happened consecutively leading up to 2024.

With a retractable roof above, Globe Life Field is a climate-controlled park that aids the baseball's air travel. That's in addition to being 600 feet above sea level, which makes it one of the five-highest elevated parks in the bigs.

The latest rule changes may have confiscated the ability to take as many pitches as possible within the time window, but hitters should be more discerning with what they are given at a park that’s seen 116 home runs at the time of this writing — the fourth most across baseball.

Pick: Total Home Runs: Over 269.5 (-110; DraftKings)

Most HRs in Round 1: Marcell Ozuna (+400, DraftKings)

By Mike Ianniello:

Marcell Ozuna’s 26 home runs at the break are the fourth most in baseball, and second in the Derby field behind only Gunnar Henderson (28). The Braves slugger has 262 career home runs and is on pace to set a new career high after hitting 40 home runs last year.

Ozuna has an absurd hitting profile and everything you look for in a home run hitter. One of the best pure hitters in baseball this year, Ozuna ranks in the top 2% of the league in xSLG, xwOBA, barrel rate and hard-hard rate.

Compared to the rest of the Derby participants, Ozuna has the highest barrel rate and second-highest average exit velocity, behind Henderson. He has been mashing the ball all season and enters the Derby in great form with three home runs in the last week. He should put on a show on Monday.

My only concern is at age 33, he is the oldest participant. He is also 225 pounds, and part of what makes him such a good power hitter is how hard he swings. I worry about Ozuna running out of gas in the later rounds.

Therefore, my favorite bet is for Ozuna to hit the most home runs in the first round at +400.

Pick: Most HRs in Round 1: Marcell Ozuna (+400; DraftKings)

Most Round 1 Home Runs: Pete Alonso (-125) over Bobby Witt Jr. (DraftKings)

By Doug Ziefel:

Bobby Witt Jr. enters this Home Run Derby as a trendy pick to win it all, and it's easy to see why. He's a statcast darling, ranking in the top 10% of all major league hitters in average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.

However, he lacks experience, which Pete Alonso has over every other bat in the field. Alonso will be seeking his third Home Run Derby title.

This experience is not only familiar with being in the event but his pitcher as well. Alonso will have Dave Jauss throwing to him again. Jauss was the man behind the L-screen from Alonso's first two titles.

Lastly, we can use the market to gauge the separation between the two. On DraftKings, Alonso's first-round total is 24.5, with juice to the over. Witt's total is set at 21.5, with juice to the over.

With a projected three-homer edge, we're getting a great price on Alonso to outhomer Witt in the first round.

Pick: Most Round 1 Home Runs: Pete Alonso over Bobby Witt Jr. (-125; DraftKings)