Adam Frazier is Hot; Here’s Why It Can’t Continue

Adam Frazier Unlikely to Continue Hot Hitting for Pirates

In today’s baseball, where teams lack depth, it’s hard to replace a regular with the caliber of play Frazier has delivered so far. Overall, he’s been worth 0.6 WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Considering that he is a replacement, that’s not too bad. Meanwhile, Gonzales is scheduled to come off the injured list any day now. Gonzales may be arriving just in time. The reason? As well as Frazier has hit, there are a few statistical indicators that suggest a lot of luck has been involved.

A Recipe for Regression

To wit, Frazier has shown an uncanny knack for stretches of hot hitting without making hard contact. This season, his hard-hit rate, i.e., the percentage of balls hit with an exit velocity of 95 mph, is a mere 16.0 percent. Thus, the .295 BABIP he’s registered so far appears unsustainable. Indeed, his xBA based on quality of contact is a mere .232. Let’s look at the latest fad among numbers crunchers, which is wOBA. There, too, is an indication of how lucky Frazier has been. He’s put up a .298 wOBA, lower than his xwOBA of .268.

Frazier’s spray chart indicates balls dropping into the shallow outfield. He has eight infield hits, two of which were doubles, among his 40 hits. (Contrast Frazier’s season with that of his teammate Spencer Horwitz, who, in a small sample size since returning from the IL, is hitting .200 with a 46.7 hard-hit rate and a .275 xBA, and a wOBA of .249 vs. an xwOBA of .312, and one realizes that baseball can be a funny game sometimes.) Consider, too, Frazier’s 84.3 average exit velocity, which is below the major league average, and 26.7 line drive rate, above the major league average but not significantly, and you have a recipe for a regression to the mean.

Remembering Frazier and the Pirates in 2021

Frazier’s season brings to mind his 2021 season with Pittsburgh, when he was the National League’s starting second baseman in the All-Star Game. That year, Frazier hit .324/.388/.448 for the Pirates. Like any Pirate who’s been performing well since. . . oh, about 1993, he was the subject of trade rumors. The analytics crowd warned that it might be a good idea to maximize his trade value. The belief then was that he couldn’t sustain his .359 BABIP with his 26.3 hard-hit rate. Frazier was sent to the San Diego Padres at the deadline in a deal that netted the Pirates Jack Suwinski and two prospects no longer with the organization.

Chalk one up for the stats geeks. Frazier hit .267/.327/.355 the rest of the 2021 season. That wasn’t terrible, but it wasn’t what the Padres were expecting either. Since the Pirates traded him, and before his return this season, Frazier hit .236/.301/.336 for four teams. He’d reached his peak by the 2021 trade deadline.

The Last Word

Maybe Frazier can continue hitting as he has since April 14. It’s more likely, however, in light of his peripherals, that a drop-off is in order. Once again, it might be a good time for the Pirates to trade Frazier to a contender looking to shore up its bench. Maybe it’s time to see what Yorke could do in a reserve role behind Gonzales. After a horrendous start, Yorke is now hitting .271/.331/.375 at Triple-A Indianapolis. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out once Gonzales returns.