American League Most Valuable Player Odds

LAGHEZZA'S LEAN:

Surprising absolutely no one with half an eyeball on baseball in 2025, Yankee masher Aaron Judge leads the field by a country mile. However, I must say — even as an analyst and dyed-in-the-wool Bombers fan, the price shocked me. 

At (-6000), Judge currently holds a +98% implied probability to win at the cost. Whoa! Yes, award markets often carry crazy odds, but under normal circumstances, we generally have to wait until at least August to get there.

My friends will want to kill me for putting this one into the universe, but if something happens to Judge anytime soon, he's not going to win. Now, I can't bet on a Judge injury in good conscience but it's an interesting thought experiment to wargame second place. A certain section of the public will look to Seattle backstop Cal Raleigh with good reason while others point to Bobby Witt Jr. That fact is, it's anyone's guess at that point. 

Frankly, I'm not certain the winner's a hitter if Judge slams into the outfield wall again and misses time. Sure, it's a tremendous outlier but also reflected in the price. Remember, this market's essentially settled for all intents and purposes. Therefore, the next-most dominant player in the A.L. after Aaron Judge is my only value on the board as constituted, Tigers' ace TARIK SKUBAL TO WIN A.L. MVP. (+13000).

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