Blue Jays 2025 free agent target: Emilio Pagán

As his career has progressed, Pagán’s pitch mix has gotten more simplified.

Last season, he featured just a four-seam fastball, a cutter, and a splitter, with both of the secondary pitches playing heavily to a preferred handedness of hitters. He threw his fastball 61% of the time, with opponents hitting just .171 against it. The heater averaged at 95.8 mph, which was a 1.2 mph increase from the season before.

Pagán’s most effective pitch was his splitter, one he threw mainly to lefties. His split generated a 40.7% whiff rate and allowed just seven hits (four of those were singles) to opposing hitters last season.

While Pagán didn’t have too many polarizing statistical splits, he gave up eight of his ten home runs at home this season. That shouldn’t particularly come as a surprise to the typical baseball fan; Great American Ball Park is one of the friendliest parks for home runs in the MLB.

Pagán has had seasons where he’s been at or near the top in home runs allowed for relievers (see 2018, 2019, 2021, and 2022), so while Reds GM Nick Krall has expressed interest in bringing Pagán back to Cincinnati, his stuff might play better in a pitcher-friendly park such as Oracle Park in San Francisco.

12Does Pagán fit on the Blue Jays?

The home run ball is a good transition here, as Toronto’s pitching staff ranked sixth in baseball in home runs allowed last season. That may keep the Blue Jays disinterested, but that doesn’t mean that Pagán isn’t an impactful reliever.

You can never have enough bullpen depth. Any playoff or fringe playoff team will be searching for bullpen arms at every trade deadline. With that being said, there is definitely a fit for Pagán, a veteran high-leverage arm with high fastball velocity, and the Blue Jays.

It is worth noting, though, that the Blue Jays should be getting Yimi García back by Spring Training, and since he’s likely going to fill in the setup or high-leverage role, that’s one less bullpen spot for an external add like this. The Blue Jays may also be aiming higher in the relief market, with names like Robert Suarez, Edwin Díaz, and Devin Williams representing the elite tier. With Ross Atkins’s comments about Jeff Hoffman not being “married” to the idea of being a closer, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Blue Jays dabble in that market.

Pagán’s contract requirements are an interesting case; coming off a season where he set a career-high in saves, could he be looking for closer-type money? Is he looking for a multi-year deal? Spotrac currently projects his market value at $12.3 million per year, very similar to the AAV on Hoffman’s contract.

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