Blue Jays free agent target: Sonny Gray

MLB free agency opens for business on Monday, which will likely kick off the most chaotic offseason in recent history.

November 2021 was a mad dash to the finish line for many free agents who were trying to lock in contracts before the impending lockout, but this one might be even crazier.

With player options being declined and players declaring free agency, it will be game on in a matter of hours. There is a lot of uncertainty on the horizon regarding MLB’s collective bargaining agreement, but while teams still have the chance to negotiate, clubs will be extremely motivated to take care of their business before the current CBA expires on December 2.

One of those players who is now available is 36-year-old (soon-to-be 37-year-old) Sonny Gray. Next to Tarik Skubal and Trevor Rogers, Gray is one of the most talented starting pitchers available. And with a stacked resume, there are few surer bets out there than the 14-year veteran.

2026 Season Stats

Ho hum, it was just another solid year for one of the most consistent active starting pitchers in MLB.

Since 2013, Gray is tied with Max Scherzer for the most starts by any pitcher, with 359 total. Gray also ranks third in innings pitched over that span, just a hair behind Kevin Gausman, who is 1.2 innings ahead of Gray.

Trading for Gray proved to be a smart move by the Red Sox, as he posted a 2.72 ERA in 29 games. The St. Louis Cardinals paid down $20 million of Gray’s $35 million salary for the 2026 campaign, which made his $15 million salary with the Red Sox a steal given the production he provided in Boston.

As it was his age-36 season, some regression was expected, with his walk rate increasing to 6.8% and his strikeout rate decreasing to 21.8%. Despite those numbers, Gray posted a quality start percentage of 69%, a total not seen during his early years in the league with the Athletics in 2014 and 2015.

That 69% QS rate placed Gray behind only Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Chris Sale for the best in baseball in 2026. Nearly seven out of ten times, Gray gave the Red Sox at least six innings and three or fewer runs, which is tough to do in the American League East.

Gray’s season ended on a sour note, as he was taken out of Game 2 of the Red Sox—Yankees Wild Card series after giving up two earned runs over 4.2 innings in the Red Sox’ elimination game. The Blue Jays are all too familiar with controversial pitching decisions, after their flubs during the 2022 and 2023 Wild Card series.

The Red Sox declined Gray’s option for 2027, officially making him a free agent and suddenly one of the most coveted starting pitchers on the free agent market.

Is Gray a fit for the Blue Jays?

It wouldn’t be an offseason if the Toronto Blue Jays weren’t sniffing around for starting pitching, and they’ve likely created their wish list of free agent targets, in addition to some ideal trade scenarios. But this offseason feels like yet another in which Toronto will be shopping in the free agent pool to bolster its starting rotation.

There seems to be a large contingent advocating for veteran pitcher Kevin Gausman to return to the Blue Jays, and while it would be an easier sell to Gausman on a short-term deal, the better play might be someone like Gray instead. He could play the part of the recently departed Max Scherzer, but Gray offers more top-end production with less injury risk.

Spotrac puts Gray’s market value at $19.362 million AAV, with a total contract value of $58.087 million over a three-year deal. Considering the going rate for a decent starting pitcher is around the $20 million mark these days, that seems reasonable for a reliable veteran like Gray.

While Gausman’s tenure in Toronto was impressive, he’d be the first to tell you he wasn’t at his sharpest in 2026 with the Blue Jays and the Chicago Cubs. Meanwhile, Gray was solid from start to finish, despite that bitter ending in the playoffs.

For my money, Gray is the slightly better starting pitcher of the two, but Gausman built a lot of goodwill with the Blue Jays fanbase during his four-plus seasons in Toronto. It may be a small sample size, but Gray navigated the AL East with ease, which is a huge litmus test for any starting pitcher coming over from the National League.

Alongside Dylan Cease and José Soriano, a trio of Cease-Soriano-Gray could form one of the most lethal starting pitching combinations in the American League.