Atlanta Braves pitcher Bryce Elder Jordan Godfree-Imagn Images

Braves Keep Receiving Second-Guesses on Recent Pitching Staff Move

Originally posted on Atlanta Braves on SI
By Dave Holcomb | Last updated Apr 19, 2025 2:30 PM ET

Braves Country will undoubtably see right-hander AJ Smith-Shawver in the Major Leagues again this season. The Atlanta Braves demoted the 22-year-old to Triple-A Gwinnett last Sunday, the morning after his most recent start.

Because of built in off days with the schedule and the return of Spencer Strider, the Braves don't need Smith-Shawver to start another MLB game for significant amount of time. So, the Braves sent him to Triple-A, where he can stay on a more traditional starter schedule.

At least that was the argument made for his demotion. Plenty on social media, though, have argued the Braves should have kept Smith-Shawver in the rotation and demoted Bryce Elder instead.

MLB.com's Mark Bowman joined that crowd Friday night during Elder's most recent start.

"Did I mention how much I was looking forward to seeing Smith-Shawver build on the end of last weekend's outing? Choosing Elder over Smith-Shawver, especially after seeing AJSS end Saturday's outing, made no sense," tweeted Bowman.

Did I mention how much I was looking forward to seeing Smith-Shawver build on the end of last weekend's outing? Choosing Elder over Smith-Shawver, especially after seeing AJSS end Saturday's outing, made no sense
— Mark Bowman (@mlbbowman) April 19, 2025

The Braves won Friday's game thanks to a five-run eighth inning. But Elder allowed four runs in five innings. He also tossed up yet another home run.

Thanks to the performance, Elder's 2025 ERA actually stayed at 7.20. Home runs have been a significant contributing factor to that poor ERA.

Elder has yielded five homers in just 15 innings this season. The 3.0 HR/9 rate he's posted this season is more than double the 1.4 HR/9 rate Elder allowed in 49.2 MLB innings last season. And even that rate was high.

One could argue it's unlikely Elder will continue to serve up home runs at such a high rate. At some point, he will have better luck with his home-run-to-fly-ball ratio.

But should Elder have even received the chance to see if he can come back to the mean?

Elder made the 2023 All-Star team. But since then, he's been a different pitcher. Elder has yielded a 1.5 HR/9 rate over his last 133.1 innings dating back to the 2023 All-Star break.

That's approaching nearly a whole season's sample size. With that HR/9 rate, more often than not, Elder is going to give up a homer in a start.

He's yielded five in three starts to begin this season.

Smith-Shawver is 0-2 with a 4.61 ERA and 1.976 WHIP in 13.2 innings this season. That's not exactly great. He's walked eight batters in three starts.

But he pitched out of a couple jams last Saturday versus the Tampa Bay Rays to keep the Braves in the game. Atlanta came back to win, which left a lot of fans and pundits, including Bowman, excited to see how Smith-Shawver would build off the start.

Instead, Braves Country was left with Elder on the mound Friday night and Smith-Shawver at Gwinnett.

Smith-Shawver is eligible to return to the majors in another week. But at least for the time being, the Braves will have to rely on Elder, who continues to significantly struggle.

This article first appeared on Atlanta Braves on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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