Breaking Down Phillies Playoff Scenarios for Seeding

Sep 20, 2026; New York City, New York, USA; Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Bryce Harper (3) during a game against the New York Mets at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: John Jones-Imagn Images IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Breaking Down Phillies Playoff Scenarios for Seeding

Originally posted on Philadelphia Phillies on SI
By Kenneth Teape | Last updated Sep 22, 2026 3:00 PM ET

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The Philadelphia Phillies are in a good position heading into the final week of the MLB regular season when it comes to securing one of the three Wild Card spots in the National League.

There is still a little bit of work to do, but they are four games ahead of the Arizona Diamondbacks with six games to play. Because they do not own the tiebreaker over the Diamondbacks, they need to finish a full game ahead of them in the standings, owning a Magic Number of three.

The schedule will do the Phillies no favors, as they are set to play three games against the Milwaukee Brewers and three against the Tampa Bay Rays. Both of those squads are playing for the No. 1 seed in their respective leagues, so Philadelphia may not get the benefit of them resting guys for the postseason.

Securing a spot in the playoffs is goal No. 1 for the Phillies, but there is also a lot at stake when it comes to seeding. They are currently one game behind the Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres, who are first and second in the Wild Card standings.

What are Phillies scenarios for seeding for playoffs?

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There is a real chance that the three teams finish in a tie with each other, which would put tiebreaker rules into effect. How would those impact Philadelphia? The simplest tiebreaker is how the teams performed against each other.

The Cubs hold a massive edge in this regard. In the event of a tie, they would be the No. 1 Wild Card team and host the three-game series at Wrigley Field because they dominated the Padres and Phillies in the regular season.

Chicago went 5-1 against San Diego and 6-1 against Philadelphia, giving them an edge down the stretch. They would host the No. 5 seed, which, in the event of a tie, would be the Phillies, thanks to their dominance over the Padres.

Philadelphia swept both three-game series the teams played earlier this season. At the very least, they should be motivated to catch the NL West squad because it would mean avoiding the Atlanta Braves in the NLWC.

Right now, the Braves seem destined to be the No. 3 seed in the NL. They are four games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers, who are 2.5 games behind the Brewers for not only the No. 1 spot in the NL, but also the best record in the MLB. The Tampa Bay Rays, who are 95-60, are 2.5 games behind Milwaukee for the No. 1 overall seed and home-field advantage throughout the entire postseason.

The Phillies have a shot at hosting the NLWC series at Citizens Bank Park, but they are going to need some help. They are essentially two games behind Chicago because of tiebreakers and are the only team that has an opponent not still mathematically alive on their schedule; they are playing three games against the Miami Marlins starting Sept. 22.

Weather at Fenway Park in Boston, where the Cubs will finish their regular season, could lead to some wonky schedules and an advantage for whoever the No. 5 seed is because Chicago might end up having to play games on Sept. 28, which was a scheduled off day before the postseason.

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This article first appeared on Philadelphia Phillies on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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