Can Cubs Stay Alive vs. Brewers as NLDS Heads to Wrigley Field?

Imanaga had a clean second inning, but his home run issues came around again in the third. He retired the first two batters, which brought up Brewers catcher William Contreras. In a 1-1 count, Contreras turned on an inside four-seamer and gave his team the lead with a solo shot.

It was no secret when Chicago signed Imanaga that he could be susceptible to the long ball. Even in his breakout 2024 season, he allowed the fifth-most home runs in the NL (27). That total rose to 31 this season (tied for fourth-most in the majors), and those issues were even more pronounced in the second half.

In 12 starts before the All-Star break, Imanaga got taken deep 11 times. In his 13 post-break starts, hitters homered off him 20 times. Including his Wild Card outing, he entered Game 2 of the NLDS having allowed a home run in 10 straight games and in 12 of his previous 13.

Him giving up two more in Monday’s loss to Milwaukee wasn’t necessarily a huge shock, then, though it hurt all the same.

Imanaga took his first postseason loss, but it didn’t fall all on him. Daniel Palencia, who entered with two outs in the third, got two outs into the fourth before giving up a back-breaking three-run homer to Brewers left fielder Jackson Chourio.

Meanwhile, the offense struggled to get going once again. The Cubs had only five more baserunners after Suzuki’s blast, and just one got into scoring position. After Hoerner led off the fifth with a single, Chicago’s next 15 hitters went down in order to end the night.

In this NLDS, the Cubs have just been outplayed by the Brewers. They’ve had some chances but haven’t given themselves nearly enough. They haven’t won the biggest moments of either ballgame.

Milwaukee has been the better team, period.

So, Can Chicago Extend the NLDS Past Game 3?

Jameson Taillon will take the bump for the Cubs. He’s coming off a strong performance in the Wild Card clincher, where he shut out the Padres over four innings. He also had a 1.54 ERA in four September starts after returning from injury, so he’s been on nice stretch.

There’s the advantage of the NLDS moving to Wrigley Field, too. Chicago was one of eight teams to reach 50 home wins this season. The fans certainly create an electric environment for the home team in that ballpark.

But really, the Cubs just need better production on both sides of the ball.

For one, with Imanaga’s relief outing included instead of Andrew Kittredge’s opener appearance in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series, their starters have combined for 15 2/3 innings in five games (and just 3 1/3 between Imanaga and Boyd in the NLDS). Their relievers have done well, and teams are generally more aggressive with bullpen decisions in the playoffs anyway, but that’s still asking a lot from that group.

Yes, Tuesday’s off-day means an extra day of rest for the entire bullpen. But a solid, deeper start from Taillon could still be big.

On the other side, the offense has to find a way to score more runs. The Cubs have yet to put up more than three runs in a game this postseason.

On a per-game basis, they’ve averaged 2.4 runs, 6.6 hits, two walks and 11.6 strikeouts. They’ve had only 17 at-bats with runners in scoring position (3.4 per game), recorded two hits while striking out five times.

The general idea is it’s harder to hit in the postseason. MLB’s best teams are attacking you with their best arms.

So, the idea that Chicago’s offense needs to figure it out is easier said than done. But with its season on the line, that’s just what this team has to do.

The odds aren’t in the Cubs’ favor in this NLDS. Take this note from MLB.com, for example: “In postseason history, teams taking a 2-0 lead in any best-of-five series have gone on to win that series 80 of 90 times (88.9%). In Division Series with the current 2-2-1 format, teams to win both Games 1 and 2 at home have advanced 31 of 34 times (91.2%), including 20 sweeps.”

Few teams have done what Chicago will have to do against Milwaukee to stay alive. This ball club hasn’t given anyone much reason to believe it can pull off a comeback.

But the Cubs obviously still have a shot. Their season isn’t over yet. All they can do now is try to win — one game at a time.