Can Diamondbacks' Ryne Nelson Bounce Back Against the Padres?

When the Arizona Diamondbacks take the field Friday night against the San Diego Padres, they will be looking to extend their three game winning streak, and make up ground in the NL Wild Card race. First pitch at Chase Field will be 6:40 p.m. MST.

The D-backs are 34-34, and 4.5 games behind the 38-29 Padres in the standings. It will be up to Ryne Nelson to put them in the position to shrink that margin by coming up with a bounceback start.

The last time Nelson pitched was Saturday, June 7 in Cincinnati, and to say it went poorly would be a gross understatement. He had neither his good fastball command, or the feel for any of his breaking pitches. He fell behind in counts, and walked four batters in just three innings of work, on his way to giving up seven runs. The D-backs lost that game 13-1.

Perhaps it was the irregular usage pattern that finally caught up to him. Nelson had been used as the swing man and spot starter all year. His previous outing was on May 31, six days prior, and that was a four inning relief stint in a blowout loss to the Nationals. Nelson didn't allow any runs in that outing, and had thrown a 6.2 inning scoreless start against the Pirates previous to that. In fact Nelson had an 11.2 inning scorless streak heading into the start against the Reds.

Thus the D-backs will hope that it was just a one game blip for the lanky right-hander. While the Cincinnati game ballooned his ERA all the way from 3.43 to 4.60, his underlying peripherals indicate he's still pitched significantly better than that.

Nelson has a 3.68 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) and a 4.03 xERA, or expected ERA from Statcast. Nelson's strikeout rate is slightly below average at 20.4%. He has an 8.1% walk rate and has allowed 0.8 HR/9. MLB starting pitcher averages for those metrics are 21.8% K-rate, 7.9% walk rate, and 1.18 HR/9.

It's probably not a realistic expectation to hope Nelson repeats his run prevention from July to September 2024 where he posted a 3.02 ERA and was the best starter on the staff during the second half of that season.

But the baseline expectation for the 27 year old should be at least that of a league average MLB starter with an ERA around 4.00 who can give you length with his pitch to contact approach. That will all depend on him getting back in the strike zone consistently however.

Nelson's track record against the Padres is mixed. He made his major league debut against that franchise in 2022, hurling seven scoreless innings. The most recent time he faced them was July 7 of 2024 when he tossed 6.2 innings and gave up just one run. Those two excellent outings bookend a middle in which he's given up 27 earned runs in 29.2 innings. It's all added up to a 5.61 ERA against the Padres for his career.

A close look at the hitters on the current Padres roster track record against Nelson is more revealing. Nelson has done a good job of containing Manny Machado, Jake Cronenworth, and Luis Arraez in his career. But Fernando Tatis Jr, Xander Bogaerts, and Jackson Merrill have hurt him.