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Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter Kyle Schwarber (12) rounds the bases after hitting a two-run home run against the Atlanta Braves in the fourth inning at Citizens Bank Park. Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

Could Kyle Schwarber Catch Phillies Slugger Ryan Howard for Franchise Record?

Originally posted on Philadelphia Phillies on SI
By Matt Postins | Last updated Aug 30, 2025 8:00 AM ET

Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber is picking the perfect time to have a career season as a home run hitter — and not just because he’s about to hit free agency.

Schwarber’s four home run binge on Thursday night was historic in many ways. But it also did something else. It positioned him to make a legitimate run at making Phillies history in a single season, a spot that former slugger Ryan Howard currently owns.

Back in 2006, Howard was playing his first full season of Major League Baseball. The year before, in 2005, he was named the National League rookie of the year even though he played just 88 games but hit 22 home runs and 63 RBI. The following season his career hit overdrive. The first baseman hit 58 home runs, a new franchise record and something that even the legendary Mike Schmidt was unable to do in his career.

At the time, that record probably seemed untouchable. Now, Schwarber has the math to support a potential run at Howard’s mark and make it his own, just as he prepares to hit the open market in free agency this offseason.

The Math on Kyle Schwarber Catching Ryan Howard

The Phillies have 27 games remaining entering Saturday’s game with the Atlanta Braves. Schwarber is coming off a Friday game in which he went 1-for-3 with a walk and two runs scored. He is slashing .249/.370/.584, along with the 49 home runs and 119 RBI. But in assessing Schwarber’s chances of catching Howard, it comes down to pace. For that, one as to look at per-game pace.

The math starts with his plate appearances. He has 602 after Friday’s game. He averages 4.45 plate appearances after 135 games played. That important because a plate appearance includes walks, something he is adept at drawing. He has 89 walks and should pass 100 walks for the third straight season.

Schwarber has 503 official at-bats and when divided by his 135 games he has 3.7 at-bats per game. With 27 games remaining, one could assume that if he plays in each game he could finish with 722 plate appearances and 603 at-bats, based on his current plate appearance and at-bat rates per game.

Now, the home runs. He has 49 for the season. When set against his 503 at-bats, he is hitting a home run every 10.26 at bats. It’s one of the top paces in the Majors, not surprising given he leads the National League in home runs. But can he catch Howard with his current pace?

Schwarber is nine home runs behind Howard’s epic season from 2006, when he was named an All-Star, a Silver Slugger and the NL MVP. Schwarber is on pace for 100 more at-bats, based on his current rate. All one must do is divide his home run pace per at-bat — 10.26 — and his extrapolated remaining at bats and one gets where the 32-year-old would end up by season’s end — 9.74 home runs.

That puts him right on pace to either tie or pass Howard for the most in franchise history in a single season. The Phillies have just about sucked the drama out of the NL East race, as they have a 5.5 game lead on the New York Mets. Schwarber’s potential race to catch Howard could keep Phillies fans glued to their seats through the regular-season finale at home against Minnesota Twins on Sept. 28.

This article first appeared on Philadelphia Phillies on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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