Daily MLB Home Run Prop, Monday 6/14

Everyone knows fans dig the longball — so every day I post my favorite Home Run calls for a fun, low-risk approach to baseball betting. Make sure to bookmark our Athlon Sports Betting tab to be first on who's going yard today.

Homers continue trending downward leaguewide, so finding the perfect spot's more important than ever...

START TIME 4:10 pm EST, Truist Park, Atlanta

Please forgive the brevity on this one. I began the write-up much earlier, but life (namely, having two young kids) got in the way — and now we're a little pressed for time. When all else fails... pick on the Rockies.

Colorado's sending RHP Chase Dollander to the mound this afternoon in an attempt to correct a pretty disastrous rookie campaign to date (6.85 ERA, 1.54 WHIP). The struggles manifest throughout the spreadsheet, stemming from poor disciplinary metrics (9.8% K-BB, 9.8% SwStrk, 22.8% CSW, 39.6% Ball, 27.5% Chase), extending through the elevation bin (43.8% Flyball), and winding up in the contact quality trash heap (45.7% Hard Hit, 15.9% Barrel, 12 HR). Yikes.

Sure, the fastball velocity's fantastic (+97 mph), but the combination of overuse (+55% Use) and poor diagnostics (6'1" extension, 16" V-Mov) lead to getting obliterated constantly (.635 xSLG, 10 HR). 

Dollander's also especially failed to suppress lefty power bats (.865 OPS, +50% Flyball, 2.7 HR/9) — and he'll be expected to get a few rather nasty ones out today. The first one that comes to mind is Atlanta's slugging southpaw Matt Olson. 

In his last 40 PA vs. RHP, Olson's mashing his way to a .925 OPS on massive power metrics (42.0% Flyball, 40.0% Pull, 54.5% Hard Hit, 22.7% Barrel, .457 xwOBA) and in a great spot to add to his HR total today.