Diamondbacks Improve Playoff Odds with Series Win Over Padres

The Diamondbacks took care of business on a critical homestand, going 5-1 against the Seattle Mariners and San Diego Padres. They've put themselves in a better position to buy at the trade deadline, closing to 3.5 games of a playoff spot, although there's still plenty of baseball left.

In their last four series, they are 8-4 with wins against the Braves, Mariners, and Padres. Their playoff odds on FanGraphs have gone from 25% to 37% in their last home stand. They still have four teams ahead of them, but they're one strong run away from being right in the thick of the race.

Here are three takeaways from the Diamondbacks' series win over the Padres.

1: D-backs Offense Continues to Carry Team

The Diamondbacks boast one of the best offenses in baseball and in the first two games of the series, they showed why. They scored 13 runs on 16 hits and eight walks against a very good Padres pitching staff that was ranked sixth in ERA coming into the series.

They opened up the series, grinding down Stephen Kolek. When the lineup turned over a second and third time through, they jumped on the right-hander. A dropped third strike turned into a run, then they knocked Kolek out with three runs in the fifth. They had a 5-1 lead after five innings that the bullpen did not relinquish.

In the second game, it was more feast or famine. They scored all eight of their runs in two innings. The first came on a three-run home run by Eugenio Suárez, who homered twice in the series and leads the team with 21 round-trippers and 57 RBI.

The other five came in a magical ninth inning, in which Arizona belted out five hits against the best closer in baseball. Robert Suárez retired just one of the six hitters he faced, with Geraldo Perdomo's bases-clearing triple tying the game.

However, the same offensive energy was not there in the series finale. Nick Pivetta deserves some credit, as he held the Diamondbacks down for four innings before they scratched two quick runs off him on another Suárez home run. Outside of that inning, they managed just two hits and one walk, which is hardly enough to win a ballgame.

2: Arizona's Bullpen Struggles Continue in the Late Innings

For the next six weeks, the Diamondbacks will simply have to figure out the right combination of relievers. In the series opener, the back end of the bullpen handled the job just fine, facing the minimum to carry a 5-1 lead to the finish line.

However, the other two games were hardly well-pitched for Arizona's relief corps. Inherited a bases-loaded jam, Ryan Thompson surrendered all three inherited runners and one of his own to put his team in a hole. Kevin Ginkel gave up two runs, albeit due to poor defense more than poor pitching.

The seventh-inning fiasco was not one of manager Torey Lovullo's best decisions this season. While he's done an excellent job of keeping this team competitive through the injuries and frustrating losses, the inability to recognize his starter was gassed nearly cost him a game. Fortunately, the comeback erased that decision.

In the series finale, the bullpen inherited a 4-2 deficit. Instead of keeping it close, they let the Padres blow it open. Tayler Scott and Anthony DeSclafani allowed four runs in the final three innings of the game. On a day when the offense was struggling to get any traffic on the bases, that was the death knell that kept them from pulling another stunning comeback.

3: Diamondbacks Trending Towards Buying at the Deadline

There are still five weeks left before general manager Mike Hazen needs to commit whether to go for it or retool for 2026. The team has won three of their last four series, with an 8-4 record, against teams that are in the playoff hunt.

The Diamondbacks will need to continue playing that well to give Hazen more confidence that the team can make a postseason run. There are 32 games left between now and July 23rd, when he'll need to start making serious calls about trade acquisitions. Arizona will likely need to win at least 18 of them, which would give them a 54-49 record to give him the confidence to pull the trigger.

There are a lot of holes with the roster that need to be addressed if they become buyers. The bullpen has to be priority No. 1, with A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez both possibly out for the rest of the season. Add in the struggles by Kevin Ginkel and Ryan Thompson, it's a group that clearly needs reinforcements.

Beyond the bullpen, the team should look at acquiring a starter, as they're pretty much down to the last man in terms of organizational depth. Beyond the current starting five, Bryce Jarvis is the only available starter who can fill in for an injury or if Brandon Pfaadt can't mitigate his propensity to give up loud contact.

If they want to look at their lineup, center field and designated hitter are the two spots they could turn to.

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