Diamondbacks' Playoff Lives Depend on Upcoming Series With Rockies

The Diamondbacks have not set themselves up with favorable playoff odds in recent weeks. They currently sit four games back of the final Wild Card berth, trailing the Philadelphia Phillies (86-70). The San Diego Padres (87-69) have moved up into the second Wild Card slot.

The Diamondbacks Wild Card Elimination (WCE) number is three. That means Arizona cannot produce worse than 4-2 record in their final six games, regardless of how the other two teams perform.

It also means three wins by the Phillies would prevent Arizona from catching up to Philadelphia, even if the D-backs were to win out.

Arizona can still mathematically catch the Padres, but they'd have to go no worse than 5-1 and win their season-ending three-game set in San Diego to have a chance. If the Padres win two or more games in their next six, Arizona cannot catch them. This is much less likely than catching Philadelphia.

It's not impossible to see the Diamondbacks earn a spot in the playoffs, but the outlook is bleak. If Arizona wants to pull this off, it has to start with no worse than a series win against a Rockies club staring down its fourth straight 100-loss season.

Here's who they'll have taking the mound for this critical series.

Diamondbacks vs Rockies pitching matchups

Tuesday, September 22: RHP Michael Soroka vs LHP Kyle Freeland

Michael Soroka looked strong his last time out, allowing one run over five innings and punching out six. He allowed only three men to reach base, one being a solo home run. Since returning from injury, the right-hander has sharp, and holds a 3.45 ERA on the season.

Kyle Freeland is having another rough year, with a 6.38 ERA and 4-10 record. He returneed from the IL on September 15 and threw four innings of three-run baseball with eight hits allowed. Arizona got to him for seven runs over 3.2 innings back in May.

Wednesday, September 23: RHP Merrill Kelly vs RHP Mason Adams

It's been a poor season for Merrill Kelly, who holds a 5.00 ERA in 2026. He allowed four runs (three earned) over 4.1 innings in his most recent start. It's worth noting, however, that the veteran right-hander tossed his first career complete game (one earned run) at Coors Field back on May 15.

Adams is a rookie making his sixth major league start. He has a 5.09 ERA in his first five, including a 4.1-inning, six-run affair in his last outing.

Thursday, September 24: LHP Eduardo Rodriguez vs TBA

When the Diamondbacks have needed a big-time start, Eduardo Rodriguez has consistently delivered. He has 15 wins and a 2.89 ERA. Unfortunately, his last two starts have been some of his worse performances. He's allowed 13 runs (10 earned) in his last two outings over 10.2 innings.

The Rockies have yet to announce their starter for Thursday's finale.