Edward Cabrera’s recent struggles raise questions

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Edward Cabrera’s recent struggles raise questions

Originally posted on ChiCitySports | By Alex Patt | Last updated May 17, 2026 10:52 PM ET

Despite the win on Friday night, many Cubs fans would tell you they were disappointed by Edward Cabrera’s short outing against the White Sox. Cabrera got off to a solid start over the first four innings, but his command derailed in the fifth, and he was taken out before getting through five. He went 4.2 innings, giving up three runs on three hits and walking three on 88 pitches.

Cabrera sports a 4.06 ERA, 4.49 FIP, 1.3 WHIP, 4.31 xERA, .261 xBA against, 7.9 K/9, and 3.2 BB/9 in 51 innings so far this year. As the kids would say, pretty “mid”. Over his last seven starts in particular, he posted a 5.26 ERA and 1.5 WHIP, which is really not ideal.

Anyone watching would say he was “getting by” in a majority of those starts where he did not dominate, but limited the damage. The goal the Cubs have for Cabrera is to be more than a “get by”, fifth starter type pitcher.

Digesting Cabrera’s early numbers

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Much of Cabrera’s story has been about him getting hit hard and his command consistency. His having spotty command at times and giving up some hard-hit balls is not new; similar trends were present down in Miami. The elite stuff he has was what the Cubs wanted to harness to keep working around the issues.

Whiff and strikeout rates have dipped compared to last year, when he was in the mid-high 70th percentile range in both. This year, the whiff rate is in the 64th percentile while the strikeout rate is in the 51st percentile. While the Cubs have an elite defense, the more hard-hit balls in play, the harder it gets to work out of jams.

The stuff is not the same, and it has not gone unnoticed. Noting the drop in fastball velocity from last year, from 97 MPH to 95.7 MPH. Not a huge dip, but a dip nonetheless. He has also dropped his arm angle from 3 6° last year to 33° this year. Two impactful trends have so far been reflected in his performance.

Edward Cabrera is throwing slower with different mechanics and pitch shapes.

Let's talk about this in a thread. I'll frame each post here as a question/answer.

1/8

— Brendan Miller (@brendan_cubs) May 10, 2026

What to make of Cabrera’s trends

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By all accounts, the Cubs are working on things with him. They knew acquiring Cabrera would be a bit of a project, while having high expectations. It was a risky move from a health and development perspective with a high ceiling.

The start does not mean struggles will continue, nor does it guarantee he will quickly turn around. Cabrera should be held to higher standards; it just might need to formulate a bit first. By no means should Cabrera just be written off yet.

This is just not your usual low-risk, high-reward development project or a big investment in the established finished product. It’s a combination of both in a way. Time will tell how the Cubs can better harness his repertoire and help him maximize his stuff, but a lot is riding on this investment. Sooner or later, there has to be a better return.

This article first appeared on ChiCitySports and was syndicated with permission.

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