So wait, who’s supposed to be the underdog in this matchup?
The Los Angeles Dodgers are the reigning World Series champions. They’re the superstar-laden behemoth that supposedly ruined baseball with a near $400 million luxury tax payroll.
Yet, it was the Milwaukee Brewers who finished with the best record in baseball. They finished four games ahead of the Dodgers, thanks in no small part to a pair of three-game sweeps over the Dodgers this summer. That means they have home field advantage for the NLCS.
On paper, the Dodgers are still the favorites. FanGraphs puts their odds of winning the series at 71%. In technical terms, that’s freaking absurd. At this point, however, we have to consider that what’s on paper doesn’t tell the full story of the 2025 Milwaukee Brewers.
The Dodgers are a true modern-day dynasty. But the Brewers, who have made the playoffs in seven of the last eight years, are building something of a dynasty of their own. They’ve never won a World Series, but that chip on their shoulders might be just the motivation they need to take down L.A.
The Dodgers’ rotation ranked among the top five in MLB in ERA, strikeout rate, and FanGraphs WAR this season, and if anything, those numbers are underselling the power of their starting pitching.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto was L.A.’s only starter to qualify for the ERA title, as injuries limited Blake Snell, Shohei Ohtani, and Tyler Glasnow to just 43 starts and 198.2 innings combined. Now, all four are healthy, giving the Dodgers an ace-caliber starter for every game of the series.
The Brewers’ rotation is less dominant after All-Star Freddy Peralta, especially with the news that Brandon Woodruff won’t be available for the NLCS. However, Milwaukee could continue using openers (like Aaron Ashby and Trevor Megill) ahead of “starters” Jacob Misiorowski, Quinn Priester, Jose Quintana, and/or Chad Patrick.
Advantage: Dodgers
Apparently Roki Sasaki is an untouchable closer now? The rookie phenom has made six appearances in relief since rejoining the Dodgers in late September. He has nine strikeouts, no walks, and his opponents have managed just two hits in 24 trips to the plate.
With veterans Tanner Scott, Kirby Yates, Blake Treinen, Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips, and Brock Stewart struggling with injury and/or inconsistency this season, Sasaki is all of a sudden L.A.’s most trusted high-leverage reliever.
Alex Vesia, Jack Dreyer, and Anthony Banda are three more key players for Dave Roberts, as is Emmet Sheehan, who’s been squeezed out of the starting rotation.
Turning to the Brewers, Trevor Megill is a weapon, whether he’s opening a game or locking down the ninth. So is Abner Uribe, who broke out as an equally dominant and durable setup man this season.
Aaron Ashby offered length and leverage in his first full season out of the bullpen. Jared Koenig was another solid option for the middle innings, and he stepped up in a major way as Nick Mears struggled in the second half. And whichever starter(s) the Brewers don’t need to pitch in bulk will further lengthen the ‘pen; I’m looking at you, Chad Patrick, and your 4.2 scoreless, hitless innings in the NLDS.
The Brewers’ bullpen is deeper and more reliable than the Dodgers’ arm barn, and Pat Murphy has proven that he knows how to get the most out of his relievers. Good bullpens are crucial in the playoffs, so this could be Milwaukee’s biggest advantage.
Advantage: Brewers
The Dodgers didn’t make much noise against the Phillies’ pitchers in the NLDS. They hit .199 with two home runs and 41 strikeouts, averaging just 3.25 runs per game. Of course, a few days beforehand, they were teeing off against the Reds in the Wild Card round, scoring 10 in Game 1 and eight in Game 2 en route to a series sweep.
The Dodgers also led the National League in runs, home runs, OPS, and wRC+ during the regular season, and now their lineup is back at full strength with a healthy Will Smith. These bats are going to cause some trouble.
As for the Brewers, their offense felt more productive than it had any right to be in the regular season. Only three teams scored more than 800 runs in 2025: Aaron Judge’s Yankees, Shohei Ohtani’s Dodgers, and… Brice Turang’s Brewers?
Milwaukee didn’t have a single qualified batter with an OPS above .800, but 10 of the 11 Brewers with at least 200 PA in 2025 were above-average at the plate. Only Joey Ortiz had a wRC+ below 100, and the shortstop still made his mark with great defense and baserunning.
To that point, the Brewers might not be able to outslug the Dodgers, but superior skills in the field and on the bases should help them close that gap. According to FanGraphs, both teams’ position players produced near-identical WAR numbers, even though they got their in very different ways.
Advantage: Dodgers??
The Brewers were the better team this season. They proved as much with their overall record, their head-to-head performance against the Dodgers, and their MLB-leading +172 run differential.
Yet, I don’t think that would have been the case if the Dodgers were as healthy all year as they are right now. Snell, Yamamoto, Ohtani, and Glasnow are a fearsome foursome in the rotation, and a massive advantage for L.A. in a short series.
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