Sep 2, 2025; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh (29) is congratulated in the dugout after he hit a home run during the fourth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

Mariners Fans Won't Like What This Latest Prediction Says

Originally posted on Fastball on SI | By Zach Pressnell | Last updated Sep 5, 2025 9:30 AM ET

The American League MVP race has been one of the more exciting storylines. It's seemingly down to Seattle Mariners slugger Cal Raleigh, who leads the league in home runs, and slugger Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees, who leads the league in a plethora of categories.

Bleacher Report's Kerry Miller recently predicted that Judge would take home the AL MVP crown over Raleigh, despite Mariners fans' biggest pleas for their star to win the award.

Aaron Judge predicted to beat out Cal Raleigh in AL MVP race

"As far as the big race is concerned, both Judge and Raleigh sputtered through a brutal August. The former entered the month batting .342 with a 1.160 OPS before posting marks of .241 and .923, respectively, while the latter also had an August OPS (.757) more than 200 points worse than what he entered the month with (.975)," Miller wrote. "Nevertheless, Judge is a sure thing to lead the league in both runs and OPS. No AL player is within 20 runs of him, nor is there a qualified AL hitter within 150 points of his OPS. The batting crown is still up for grabs, though.

"Jacob Wilson (.315), Bichette (.307) and Jeremy Peña (.306) are all reasonably within striking distance of Judge (.323). Meanwhile, Raleigh has the home run crown just about locked up, eight clear of Judge there. RBI is a much tighter race, but he might only need to worry about staying ahead of teammate Eugenio Suárez—if his full-season RBI numbers even count, considering most of them came while in the NL."

Judge, when healthy, has been the best player in the game again this year. His OPS is up over 1.100, obviously leading the league, while his batting average sits at the top of baseball, too. The only reason this feels like a close race is the fact that what Raleigh is doing is also incredibly impressive.

Raleigh is slugging at a rate that's never been seen by a catcher before. His defense is great and he has the Mariners in the postseason despite a disappointing year from the pitching staff.

But the award is Judge's. He's been far too impressive this year to be beaten out because Raleigh has a few more home runs than he does. Sorry, Mariners fans.

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This article first appeared on Fastball on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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