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MLB Insiders Hesitant To Pick Tigers Over the Mariners in ALDS Matchup
Detroit Tigers outfielder Jahmai Jones (18), right, hugs, left pitcher Tommy Kahnle (43) to celebrates 6-3 win over Cleveland Guardians in Game 3 of AL wild-card series at Progressive Field in Cleveland on Thursday, Oct. 2, 2025. Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Detroit Tigers blew a 15.5 game lead in the American League Central, which caused them to be the away team in the AL Wild Card Series against the Cleveland Guardians. The Tigers won game one on the back of Tarik Skubal and took game three thanks to a four-run seventh inning.

Despite losing the division to Cleveland, Detroit won the Wild Card round and will now face the Seattle Mariners in the ALDS.

The Mariners earned the second seed in the American League after winning the AL West. Seattle is in the playoffs for just the second time since their 116-win season in 2001. In 2022, the Mariners were swept by the Houston Astros in the ALDS and that was their last postseason appearance.

Detroit is hoping for the same success as they travel to Seattle for game one beginning Saturday night. However, MLB insiders at The Athletic (subscription required) are not as confident in the Tigers. In fact, not a single insider picked Detroit to advance to the ALCS.

The Tigers Against Seattle in the Regular Season

Detroit took two of three from the Mariners in the second series of the year. However, Seattle got their revenge as they swept the Tigers in a three-game series at Comerica Park in July. In that series. Detroit was outscored 35-14.

As a team, the Tigers hit the ball well against a very good pitching staff. They slashed .268/.336/.411 with 29 runs scored in the six games played. Of their six home runs, four came off the bat of Riley Greene. The Mariners are not usually a team that allow their opponents to hit that well, so Detroit should have some confidence heading into the divisional series.

On the mound, the Tigers were not as good. Seattle put up 35 runs in their three-game sweep in July and 45 runs in total against Detroit. The Tigers' staff had a 7.30 ERA against the Mariners in the regular season and they allowed a .266 oBA to go along with 15 home runs. Their Cy Young Candidate, Skubal, allowed seven runs on 10 hits in his two starts against Seattle. Both of those games resulted in a loss for the Tigers.

Why There Is a Lack of Confidence in the ALDS

Insiders at The Athletic cited the starting pitching and lineup of the Mariners. Seattle's starting rotation was seventh in quality starts, second in strikeouts, fourth in innings pitched, 11th in ERA and fourth in WHIP. They accounted for 55 of the team's 90 wins.

The Mariners' pitching staff being strong is nothing new, though. What made the argument for them more convincing is their offense. Seattle was third in home runs this season, thanks to Cal Raleigh's 60 long balls. Additionally, mid-season acquisition Eugenio Suarez and Julio Rodriguez had more than 30. Randy Arozarena and Jorge Polanco both showcased plenty of power this season, as well.

The Tigers have to be locked in on the mound all series. If they are going to beat the Mariners, they will have to match them on the mound. The good news is Skubal should be able to make two starts for Detroit. Despite his struggles against Seattle in the regular season, Skubal is still one of the best pitchers in baseball.

This will come down to whether or not the Tigers can keep the ball in the yard. If Detroit can limit the long ball and keep Seattle's offense in check, there is a chance for them. The insiders just do not think that will happen.


This article first appeared on Detroit Tigers on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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