We have just a few games on Monday, but fortunately we have a couple of picks to make things interesting.
I have two picks, including one that takes advantage of a profit boost promotion on DraftKings.
Let’s dive into my MLB NRFI and YRFI picks and model predictions.
Starting Pitchers: German Marquez vs. Max Meyer
This one is a little gross, given the (lack of) quality of starting pitching in the contest.
However, it’s not so bad when we dig a bit deeper. The big issue is Marquez, who has an overall ERA north of seven. However, his underlying metrics are all two to three runs lower, which is mostly a factor of playing half of his games at Coors Field. With this one in Miami, he gets a solid upgrade.
Both he and Meyer also have considerably better numbers early in games than overall, which further boosts the projection. More importantly, both lineups are bad, with the Rockies the worst team in baseball against righties, and none of the Marlins’ first three hitters having a wRC+ mark above average this season.
Starting Pitchers: Jack Flaherty vs. Jonathan Cannon
DraftKings is offering a 33% profit boost on YRFI/NRFI bets today, making the full game YRFI playable (and the best option) there.
I have this one as close to a toss-up, with most of the run projection coming from the Tigers’ side. Their +195 team YRFI would be the better option without the promotion, with Jonathan Cannon having a 5.92 xFIP his first time through the order.
Personally, I’m playing the boosted game YRFI for the promotional maximum, then supplementing that with the Tigers team YRFI in order to get to half of a unit of exposure in total.
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