Pirates Cheaping Out on Bubba Chandler?

Yet, despite his overwhelming success, Chandler remains in the minors. While the Pirates could point to development goals or roster logistics as reasons for the delay, another factor seems to loom in the background: the Super Two rule, an MLB arbitration mechanism that has influenced prospect promotions for decades.

What Is the Super Two Rule?

Unlike standard service time manipulation, where teams delay a prospect’s debut to push back free agency, the Super Two rule impacts when a player becomes eligible for salary arbitration.

Here’s how it works:

• A player typically reaches arbitration after three full years of MLB service time.
• However, the top 22% of players with BETWEEN two and three years of service time qualify for early arbitration, giving them four arbitration-eligible seasons instead of three.
• This means they start earning higher salaries sooner, which can cost teams millions over time — especially for star players.

The rule traces back to collaborative bargaining between MLB and the Players Association. Before its implementation, teams could suppress player salaries by keeping prospects in the minors just long enough to delay arbitration entirely.

However, the unintended consequence was that teams began delaying promotions of top prospects—not just to manipulate free agency, but also to avoid early arbitration raises.

Historically, the Super Two cutoff has ranged between 2 years, 115 days (2019) and 2 years, 146 days (2011). In recent years, it’s hovered around 2 years, 130 days. That date usually falls around the first portion of June.

This year, June 6th has been a date that is being floated around as the possible cutoff. But MLB will not announce when the cutoff date is until after the season is complete.

How Super Two Could Be Impacting Chandler’s Call-Up

If Chandler were promoted today, he would likely accrue enough service time to qualify for Super Two status after the 2027 season, meaning:

• He’d enter arbitration a year earlier (after 2027 instead of 2028).
• The Pirates would have to pay him higher salaries in Years 3-6 rather than just Years 4-6.

For a team that consistently carries a low payroll like Pittsburgh, the difference is substantial. Consider these contrasting examples:

• Nolan Arenado (Rockies, 2013) – Promoted on April 28, 2013. He reached Super Two status after 2.155 years of service time, earning $5 million in his first arbitration season in 2016. By his final arbitration year, he made $26 million.
• Yordan Alvarez (Astros, 2019) - Promoted on June 9, 2019. Did not reach Super Two status. First arbitration-eligible year was 2022, with 2.113 years of service time. Alvarez would go on to earn a 6-year, $115-million extension. But the Astros were able to do this after 2022, as opposed to after the 2021 season.

If Chandler becomes a frontline starter, the Pirates could ultimately save $10-20 million+ by waiting until mid-June to call him up.

Is Service Time the Only Factor?

The Pirates won’t admit if Super Two is influencing their decision — doing so could invite a grievance from the MLBPA. As stated by Pirates' General Manager Ben Cherington, there are legitimate baseball reasons to keep Chandler in AAA.

Chiefly, Chandler's command still could use some work. He has issued 4.1 walks per 9 innings. In his last, aforementioned start, he walked four batters. The flamethrower has walked 14 hitters over his last 23 innings pitched.

There is also obvious concern with his workload, as there is with any young starting pitcher. In AAA, starting pitchers typically pitch every six to seven days. In MLB, that number goes down to five to six days. That's a significant difference over the course of a season. Chandler has thrown 43 innings this season, and his 119 innings pitched in 2024 was a career high.

There's also the fact that the Pirates are loaded with starting pitching, and not really in need of another addition to the rotation. In fact, recently promoted starting pitcher Braxton Ashcraft will go directly to the bullpen because of the lack of room in their strong rotation.

Many Pirates fans would have liked to see Chandler get the promotion over Mike Burrows last week, but the fact is that Burrows is 25-years-old and has also earned a shot.

Given Chandler's dominance, the optics are hard to ignore. If the Pirates hold him back until June or July, it will only fuel speculation that financial strategy — not just player development — is at play.

The Super Two rule remains one of MLB’s most controversial labor policies. While intended to benefit young stars, it has also led to delayed promotions for elite prospects.

There have been recent CBA changes, like draft pick incentives for promoting top prospects or opening the season with them on your roster, to discourage service time manipulation. But it is still common practice for teams to at least attempt to limit a player's service time, with eyes on their eventual arbitration contracts.

For now, Chandler continues to overpower AAA hitters, making his MLB debut inevitable. The only questions are when that will be, and whether the Pirates’ decision is based on baseball readiness or long-term payroll strategy.