Rays vs Pirates Interleague Series Preview at PNC Park

The early returns on Nick Martinez’s data as a Ray point to a significant uptick in changeup usage. They clearly see it as his best pitch and have him relying on it more than his usual sinker/cutter combination. In terms of spin or whiff rate, it’s not exactly lighting up the charts.

But a theme of his last outing against New York was how off-balance the opposing hitters were against the changeup. It sits at a starkly slower 78 mph, which, when paired with a sinker touching 93 mph, creates a lot of tunneling deception.

The formula for Martinez seems pretty straightforward. He throws a healthy amount of changeups to go along with five other offerings, all of which hardly miss the strike zone. A sterling walk rate and changeup trending towards excellence give reason to be hopeful that Martinez will thrive this year in the rotation.

After seeing Noah Schultz just this week in Chicago, the Rays will get to see another top pitching prospect in the game with Bubba Chandler. Though not as fresh-faced as Schultz, the Pirates' rookie flamethrower has all the tools to complement Paul Skenes as co-aces for a long time to come in Pittsburgh.

He initially broke on the scene with a lightning-fast ascent in the 2024 minor league season, where he eviscerated hitters with a fastball that seemed otherworldly compared to other minor leaguers. It’s his bread and butter pitch he relies on the most, clocking in at 97 mph baseline and touching 99 or 100 mph.

The metrics behind the pitch support the eye test for just how filthy it is, and the strong vertical break induced is how it plays even further up than it appears. His secondaries have been a work in progress.
The slider and curveball are spun tightly and devastatingly, but have trouble landing in the zone. The Pirates want to give Chandler all the runway he needs this season to figure out his arsenal and become the ace he seems so fittingly billed to become.

Chandler is just one in a line of arms the Pirates have been turning out to create one of the most premier pitching staffs in baseball. Of course, ruler of the roost Skenes leads the way with aforementioned top prospect Chandler in training to become one of the top two men in the league.

Behind them is an impressive array of young talent, starting and relieving-wise. Braxton Ashcraft possesses elite stuff and raw athleticism that have propelled him into a starting role. Thomas Harrington’s impressive control throughout his minor league career projects him to be a longtime member of Pittsburgh’s future.

Not to mention Hunter Barco, Evan Sisk, and former friend Mason Montgomery in the pen. The array of options is starting to become dizzying for the Pirates, and the fleet of arms is a key propellant if they are to contend late in the year.

Game 2: Drew Rasmussen v Paul Skenes

For those who love the art of pitching, look no further. This is a pay-per-view billing type fight of top arms that will be watched with bated breath. For Tampa Bay, Drew Rasmussen is going up against arguably the best pitcher in all of baseball.

After skipping a turn in the rotation due to the birth of his second child, Rasmussen slotted in against New York with a reinvigorated spirit. Making mincemeat of some of the best hitters in the game, he racked up seven strikeouts, allowed only one hit, and crushed a Yankees team that has become all too famous for being owned by him.

With Rasmussen, it’s become a joy to watch him every turn through the rotation. Easily one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball due to a lack of media focus in Tampa Bay, he ranks among the top pitchers in baseball with a career 2.83 ERA.

Last year, he proved to the baseball world that he could pitch like an ace and handle a full workload, and this year is about continuing his ascent into Cy Young conversations.

Whereas Rasmussen’s trajectory has been a slow and steady rise to recognition, there isn’t a soul in America who isn't aware of Paul Skenes. A Rookie of the Year performance that almost netted him the Cy Young, followed by him taking the award the next year, is unfathomable.

Never before in baseball history have we seen a star of his caliber. In only two full seasons, Skenes has already accomplished more than what almost every other pitcher in baseball will achieve. The awards, the celebrity, and the icon status from Skenes have given Pittsburgh national recognition.

This year, though, is about combining the otherworldly pitching with a strong all-around squad. There’s a general feeling that Skenes is destined to don another uniform sooner than Pirates fans would like.

Keeping him happy under team control for the coming years will be a Herculean task for a Pirates team desperately trying to get over its losing hump. The Rays, meanwhile, should just hope to keep this game close as long as they can.

If there is any reason for Skenes to see through Pittsburgh as his forever home going forward, it could be because of Konnor Griffin. The consensus number one prospect, Griffin, got the call at 19 years old to man shortstop for the foreseeable future in Pittsburgh. That faith was then doubled down on when he was extended to a 9-year deal worth $140 million.

Every indicator in Griffin’s skill set points to him becoming a superstar. His raw athletic ability is freaky as he possesses both elite contact and power. That, combined with speed on the bases and range-wise at shortstop, gives all the makings of a five-tool player. It’s hard to find what Griffin cannot do on a baseball diamond, and this series will give the Rays a glimpse of a potential future face of baseball.

Game 3: Shane McClanahan v Mitch Keller

The pitching excellence does not dry up after Game 2. Shane McClanahan gets the nod for the Sunday daytime game after winning his first start since 2023 this week against the White Sox. The victories come in small numbers for McClanahan, who is still climbing an uphill battle to find his ace-like form.

Life on the mound for him currently consists of becoming a less fastball-dependent pitcher. That pitch is getting hit hard, sporting both a .326 xBA against it as well as a measly 9.4 Whiff%. The good news is that his secondaries are pulling a lot of weight to make up for it.

Changeups and sliders have been inducing heavy swing and miss, and give him true out pitches that every ace needs. It’ll be interesting to see how long the fastball plays like this, though.

At some point, there might be a plateauing in velocity that sees him stuck in the range of a simply average fastball. The hope of seeing McClanahan reach back for 99 or 100 mph becomes slightly dimmer each outing he sits in the mid-90s.

In a pitching staff of babyfaced phenoms and rising stars, Mitch Keller has become the grizzled veteran in the Pirates' rotation at 30 years old. A Bucco since 2019, Keller once upon a time arrived with hype and helium of his own as a top prospect. That instant success Skenes found upon call up, evaded Keller.

A warm-up period of 170 innings and a 6.02 ERA ball kept Keller under serious doubt for some time. It wasn’t until he ditched his lifeless four-seamer in favor of a sinker/cutter combination that he found his way. That switch in pitch usage swung him from a questionable back-end arm to a frontline guy in one season.

Outrageous groundball rates carried his game as one of the premier groundball-inducing starters. Tampa Bay will need to be more choosy against a pitcher like Keller. He will be trying to play into their strength of high contact at the sacrifice of hard hitting. Simply putting the bat on the ball against a pitcher like Keller plays into the groundball tendencies that make him successful.

This series will be the first time the Rays see former franchise icon Brandon Lowe in a different uniform. Those paying attention to Pirates baseball will know that Lowe has been off to one of the hottest starts across the league.

He’s wasted no time adjusting to his new environment by slugging home runs at a torrid rate. It’s a bittersweet feeling for Tampa Bay fans as the reason he’s not bashing homers for the Rays is an insurmountable $11 million salary that the front office deemed too expensive.

That cheapness allowed the Pirates to nab the longtime slugger and more in a trade that netted Jacob Melton as the centerpiece, who is starting the season in Triple-A with a .196 BA.

This trade falls into a long line of deals where the front office cared more about maximizing future value over present value. It was the same with Randy Arozarena and Isaac Paredes, who were shipped away in their prime years, and it’s looking to be the same with Brandon Lowe, who is still in his prime.