Royals Red-Hot Reliever Predicted To 'See Some Regression'

The 2025 Kansas City Royals have received elite production from an unexpected bullpen star, but can he possibly keep it up?

The Royals, riding a 24-18 record entering Monday’s matchup against the Houston Astros, have to be wondering whether their bullpen can maintain this degree of excellence for much longer.

Bleacher Report’s Tim Kelly is wondering the same thing. On Monday, Kelly identified left-hander Daniel Lynch IV as a Royals reliever who’s likely to regress in his performance as the season rolls along.

"The Kansas City Royals currently have a top-five bullpen ERA, and that's not simply because veterans Lucas Erceg and Carlos Estévez are pitching well,” Kelly wrote.

“Daniel Lynch IV has been a tremendous left-handed option out of manager Matt Quatraro's bullpen, as he's posted a minuscule 0.96 ERA across his first 15 outings of the season.”

“With that said, he currently has a 3.50 expected ERA and 3.97 FIP. Those are two metrics that are pretty good at predicting future performance, and the guess here is that Lynch will see some regression in the not-so-distant future."

Lynch struggled as a starter in 2024 (6.43 ERA) but found success once he moved to the bullpen (1.84 ERA in 29 1/3 innings).

History says that Lynch won’t keep performing like an All-Star reliever, but if he’s able to stay anywhere close to this level, the Royals are going to keep enhancing their playoff chances.

Lynch, 28, was selected at No. 34 overall by the Royals in the 2018 Major League Baseball draft. He has spent his entire career with Kansas City.

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