The Harsh Truth About the Blue Jays’ Playoff Odds

Five games remain: two more against Baltimore and then three more at the Rogers Centre against the Cincinnati Reds. The Blue Jays will have to win out to be 82-80, and even if they do, their ticket isn't officially punched to the playoffs.

The Chicago White Sox have the tiebreaker advantage over the Blue Jays, while the Cleveland Guardians currently hold a better overall record than Toronto. However, Toronto has the tiebreaker advantage in the season series against the Guardians. As the two franchises compete for the AL Central crown, only one can emerge as the winner. Nevertheless, it's still possible for one of them to qualify for the playoffs over the Blue Jays.

Toronto will need either Chicago or Cleveland to completely fall off, while winning the remaining five games to get into the postseason. If either the White Sox or Guardians win more than two games, the Blue Jays would officially be eliminated from playoff contention.

Harsh reality, right? Well, the Blue Jays dug themselves into a hole that they now need help to crawl out of. FanGraphs gives Toronto a 1.1% chance of making the playoffs, which basically means that if they lose one more game and both Chicago and Cleveland win, the Blue Jays' season would be over.

On paper, the Blue Jays looked like they'd be right back in the thick of things in the American League, but unfortunately, injuries plagued the team. While many stepped up, sometimes things are too far gone.

"This was a year that was very, very unfortunate for a lot of guys at the same time," manager John Schneider said following the loss to the Orioles Monday night.

Toronto has gone on winning streaks before, and Cleveland and Chicago have both dropped the ball at some point this season. The Blue Jays will need some help from the baseball gods, the Kansas City Royals (who play both the White Sox and Guardians to close out the year), the Boston Red Sox, and the Colorado Rockies.