The Yankees Big Decision Between Kyle Tucker And Cody Bellinger

The Cody Bellinger path

Bellinger is different. He is 30, left-handed, and has already shown he can handle center field and first base at a level where you are not covering for him. He just played 152 games, hit .272 with 29 home runs, drove in 98 runs, posted an .814 OPS, and stayed on the field for the Yankees for a full year. That was his best full-season production since his 2019 MVP peak.

That matters for two reasons.

First, first base is not a hole for 2026. Ben Rice is already in the picture as the Yankees’ everyday first baseman. Rice, a left-handed bat who debuted in 2024, just gave them a .255 average, 26 home runs, and an .836 OPS while settling in at first full time.

So Bellinger is not coming in to “fix first base.” He is giving them coverage there if Rice needs a day, and he is giving them a center fielder or left fielder who can start in the middle of the diamond without breaking the defense.

Second, his price range is different. Early projections on Bellinger’s next deal are coming in around five years and $140 million, sometimes stretched to six years and something in the $150–$180 million neighborhood. That’s roughly $25 to $30 million a year.

That is still serious money. It is just not “10 years and $350 million.”

Because Bellinger can cover center field now, he gives the Yankees a bridge that lets Spencer Jones come up on a sane timeline and adjust or gives Jasson Dominguez a safety net.

The money

Here is where this turns into math instead of preference.

Major League Baseball’s competitive balance tax line for 2026 is $244 million, with escalating penalties as you blow past it.

The Yankees are already carrying huge guaranteed dollars into 2026 between Judge, Gerrit Cole, Max Fried, Carlos Rodon and the rest of the core. Recent estimates have the Yankees sitting north of $160 million in guaranteed 2026 money from just a handful of contracts, and climbing toward the $230 million range once you factor in the rest of the roster.

Now layer in each option.

If you sign Tucker at something like 10 years and $350 million, you are looking at an annual hit in the $35 million range.
That move alone would push the Yankees toward the top tax tiers with very little room left to buy late-inning relief or another veteran starter behind Max Fried and Carlos Rodon while Cole rehabs from Tommy John surgery.

If you sign Bellinger at something closer to $28 million a year, you are still spending aggressively, but you have more space under the upper tax tiers to also add bullpen help and rotation depth.

That is the real appeal here. Tucker is probably the better pure hitter, and he is younger. Bellinger is the smoother financial fit if you still plan to buy pitching, and he covers two positions you actually use every day.

Where this goes

There is no wrong answer. 

Signing Tucker says the Yankees are willing to spend like it is 2009 again and build the offense around a left-handed star at the front of his prime, even if it means locking into one massive move and trusting their own pitching depth to hold.

Keeping Cody Bellinger says they are going to protect their flexibility instead. You keep a left-handed bat who just produced in New York, you keep center field stable until Spencer Jones forces his way into the job, you keep Ben Rice at first base, and you leave room in the budget for bullpen and rotation help.

That is the question in front of them. Are they trying to buy one more middle-of-the-order star for the Judge window, or are they trying to build a roster that can still afford pitching and survive another half year without Gerrit Cole?