Trevor Rogers Has Been the Ace the Orioles Were Missing

In the southpaw’s struggles over the past three seasons, the metrics on his fastball and changeup took a divebomb. The lethal combo in 2021 was nowhere near as effective from 2022 to 2024.

After the O’s acquired Rogers at the 2024 trade deadline, he was only on the team for 22 days before being optioned to Triple-A. For the first time in his career, Rogers had negative pitch values on every pitch in his arsenal.

So, when the 27-year-old was set to make his season debut in the midst of a dreary time for O’s fans, optimism was not on the forefront of everyone’s mind. 

Despite that, Rogers has completely shifted the narrative that he was just a one-year wonder. Had the lefty started the season healthy, Rogers would be the runaway Cy Young candidate.

This is large in part thanks to a resurgence in that fastball-changeup combination. His 13.6 wFA is a career high and 8.1 wCH is only .1 away from tying a career high.

Rogers is also throwing strikes at a higher clip than he ever has. His 58.6% zone rate and 65.1% first-pitch strike percentage are both career highs.

Getting back to and surpassing his 2021 stuff was not on many O’s fans 2025 bingo cards, but it has been exactly what the doctor ordered.

A Part of the Solution

In 2024, for about five weeks, the Orioles had a three-headed monster at the front of their rotation. After welcoming back 2023 breakout ace Kyle Bradish to a rotation already spearheaded by Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez, the O’s went 27-13 in the 40 games Bradish spent on the roster before going on the IL with a right UCL sprain.

Now, it is not exactly rocket science to say that once a team adds a great pitcher to a good rotation that they should get better. However, the organization had not seen that kind of production from a rotation since 1971 when Jim Palmer, Dave McNally, Mike Cuellar and Pat Dobson each had 20 wins.

Going into 2025, the O’s had lost all three of those arms, leaving the team without an ace. That hole dug the team too big of a hole to climb out of.

In Rogers’ resurgence, the O’s have found an ace. In the 13 games he has started, the O’s are 10-3. 

With Bradish making his return, and Rogers continuing to build on a great year, the Orioles once again have some talented arms leading the rotation. While it may be too late for a playoff push, Rogers helps take some pressure off the front office ahead of the offseason.

Building into 2026

Now, do not get me wrong, Mike Elias needs to stock up on pitching in the offseason. You can never have too many pitchers, especially for a team that has experienced their fair share of injuries this season.

With so many questions looming about the bullpen and filling out the outfield, Rogers helps make things simpler in the rotation. Rogers and Bradish are great pieces to have for the rotation. With the addition of another headliner and some backend help, this rotation could be set to rebound strongly in 2026.