Where The Mets’ Offensive Struggles Stem From

The absence of Juan Soto has certainly played a part in the lineup's issues, but losing one superstar shouldn't turn the entire group into a complete mess. Eno Sarris of The Athletic took a deep dive into the Mets' offensive struggles, which noted that they are underachieving their offensive projections by an average of 1.37 runs per game.

The Mets have lost five games by one run this season, so simply hitting their projected totals would likely have them with at least three more victories right now. There are a lot of factors that go into a struggling offense, but Sarris believes the biggest problem the Mets have is that their hitters are letting the ball get too deep into the strike zone before making contact.

According to Sarris' article, the Mets let the ball get deeper into the strike zone than any team in the league. The ideal distance to make contact with the ball, according to Sarris, is 30 inches in front of the strike zone. You can add another six inches if you are trying to pursue power.

As a team, the Mets average making contact with the ball roughly 28.4 inches in front of the zone, which is well behind where you should be doing so analytically. Sarris notes that only three qualified hitters average a point of contact ahead of the 30-inch mark for the Mets: Francisco Lindor, Marcus Semien and Mark Vientos, all of whom barely eclipse that plateau.

What Does This Data Mean For The Mets' Offense?

In terms of an analytical perspective, the data Sarris provides makes perfect sense for anyone who watches the Mets' offense on a regular basis. Hitters have been late on fastballs a lot this season, like when Vientos popped up to lead off the 10th inning on Sunday on one down the middle, and have often been beating the ball into the ground instead of elevating it.

Waiting longer to swing at a pitch could indicate that the Mets' hitters are trying too hard to recognize what pitches they are seeing. The Mets have an analytically advanced approach to hitting, with director of hitting Jeff Albert overseeing major league hitting coaches Troy Snitker and Rafael Fernandez.

It is certainly possible that the approach they are trying to create throughout the organization may be causing some paralysis by analysis for Mets' hitters, who are already trying to do too much with Soto out. By waiting too long to decide to swing, they have decreased their chances of making successful contact for anything other than a ground ball, which can be converted into outs easily by a good defensive team.

The answer here, besides getting Soto back during this homestand, may be for the Mets to simplify the process their hitters are going through. Instead of trying to find the perfect pitch to hit, the Mets may need to encourage their batters to be more aggressive when they see something they like and jump on it.

A lot of the same problems surfaced at the end of last season, when hitters were often staring at fastballs down the middle early in counts and swinging out of their shoes at breaking balls out of the strike zone when they fell behind. The fact that the Mets' offense is experiencing a lot of the same issues despite changes in coaching and personnel suggest that their process may be more flawed than they realize.

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