Fantasy NASCAR Picks: Sleepers and Fades for Texas

Tyler Reddick, No. 45 23XI Racing Toyota

No car in the series has better speed on 1.5-mile ovals than Reddick's Toyota. He has 5 race wins this season 7 of his 10 starts in the top-10. Since the inception of the NextGen car, Reddick has one win at Texas in 4 starts and 2 top-5's. He is the third choice on DFS platforms, but can easily be the race favorite.

William Byron, No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet

The slump of Byron's 2026 is very likely to end this week. He is the best finisher at Texas since 2022, with one race win and a supreme 6th-place average finish. The Chevrolets should be on the brink of perfecting their 1.5-mile package, and if Byron qualifies in the top 10, he will be a huge threat to win. Byron is only priced as the 5th-likeliest winner.

Mid-Tier Picks

Bubba Wallace, No. 23 23XI Racing Toyota

Wallace has led 116 of 1,068 laps run at Texas since 2022. His average start is 9.8, and Wallace has finished top-10 in 2 of his 4 starts. If it weren't for a race wreck, Wallace's average finish would have been near the top-10. With his team flashing their best speed of 23XI Racing's life-to-date, Wallace should be a good value pick.

Joey Logano, No. 22 Team Penske Ford

Logano is coming off back-to-back abysmal race days, with 39th- and 30th-place finishes. Yet, Logano finished 7th at Bristol and 3rd at Martinsville. The smarts of Team Penske will likely have the No. 22 geared up in good form this Sunday. Logano has one race win at Texas since 2022, and the T-2 best average finish of 8.8.

Longshot Picks

Daniel Suarez, No. 7 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet

Suarez may be listed as a longshot, but he has actually been among the best drivers at Texas over the last 4 seasons. Suarez has 3 top-10 finishes in that timespan, including the T-2 best average finish (8.8). Given how Spire flashed speed last weekend and to date, Suarez has great top-5 ability if the stars align.

Erik Jones, No. 43 LEGACY MOTOR CLUB Toyota

Jones is one of the more experienced drivers in this field. When his Toyota is in good shape, Jones tends to run well. Before a wreck last Sunday, Jones had a great chance to find victory lane at Talladega. In Texas, Jones has 2 top-10 finishes in his last 4 starts, including an average finish of 15th, despite wrecking out of one of those events.