An updated look at the Atlanta Hawks lottery odds

The NBA is entering the final quarter of the season, and it’s fair to say the Atlanta Hawks’ season has been disappointing on the floor.

This is a club that came in with legitimate aspirations to compete in the Eastern Conference following the offseason acquisitions of Kristaps Porzingis, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Luke Kennard. But of those three, only Alexander-Walker remains with the team. Porzingis was constantly hampered by illness and injuries, while Kennard never really seemed to find any consistency in Atlanta despite being the team’s top three-point shooter.

The Hawks will likely find themselves in the play-in tournament once again, with no real shot at advancing out of the first round. That said, there’s still a lot of hope for the future thanks to a few developments.

Jalen Johnson has taken that next step. He recently represented the Hawks in the All-Star Game and should receive All-NBA consideration at season’s end. The floor is now his with Trae Young in Washington. Then there’s the ultra-valuable draft pick the Hawks received in their draft-night trade with the Pelicans. It is an unprotected first-rounder, most favorable of New Orleans or Milwaukee — two teams that are both currently in the lottery.

Atlanta Hawks Lottery Odds

• Pelicans — 4th worst record — 12.5% chance at #1, 48.1% chance at Top 4
• Bucks — 10th worst record — 3% chance at #1, 9% chance at Top 4

Through some simple addition, the Hawks currently have a 15.5% chance of landing the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft and a 57.1% chance of landing a top-four selection. Both marks are the highest of any team, and they didn’t even have to tank to get into this position.

Speaking of tanking, there is one caveat that must be discussed as we enter the final stretch of the season. It’s no secret that teams currently in the lottery are trying their hardest to lose in order to improve their chances of securing a top pick in this loaded draft class. The Pelicans, who do not own their lottery pick, have no incentive to tank. So they are one of the few teams at the bottom of the standings actually trying to win.

To this point, that approach has resulted in a 16–42 record, but there’s still a strong chance they finish a few spots higher in the standings by season’s end simply by continuing to compete.

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