Five contenders for each NBA award

Was Nick Nurse simply lucky that the Toronto Raptors traded for Kawhi Leonard and, later, Marc Gasol, or is he one of the best coaches in the Association this fall? We’ll start to get an answer during the first half of the campaign. Kawhi Leonard joining the Los Angeles Clippers removed any pressure to return to the Finals. If the Raptors aren’t sellers by the trade deadline, Nurse could find himself near the top of coaching power rankings.

Each of the following could happen: Donovan Mitchell could win Most Improved Player, Rudy Gobert could win Defensive Player of the Year, Quin Snyder could win Coach of the Year and the Utah Jazz could  win 55 games . Other Western Conference teams added bigger names over the offseason, but Mike Conley and Bojan Bogdanovic were fantastic gets for a club that’s ready to do more than just qualify for the playoffs. Utah has a history of failing to live up to advertisements: Ask passionate Jazz fans about that. If Utah hits the 55-win mark, Snyder could run away with the award. 

Brett Brown doesn’t have to tolerate Jimmy Butler anymore , but the Philadelphia 76ers may not be better for it. If not for Kawhi Leonard’s heroics, Brown could have led the Sixers to the Conference Finals last spring, and the Sixers hope to be even better a year later as Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons continue to improve. Philly also added Al Horford during the offseason. Expectations are high for Philadelphia now that Leonard is out of the conference. Brown will deserve to take the trophy from Mike Budenholzer if the Sixers earn home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. 

Milwaukee Bucks coach Mike Budenholzer may be the safest bet, or at least that is the case if history offers any indication of what is to come. Giannis Antetokounmpo could repeat as league MVP, and the Bucks begin the season as favorites to again sit atop the Eastern Conference standings in April. The Western Conference is loaded with talent, and battles between them could lead to the top-tier teams finishing below Milwaukee in the overall league standings. That could be enough for Budenholzer to earn this award a second-consecutive year and third time since  2015. 

The Los Angeles Clippers traded leading scorer Tobias Harris to the Philadelphia 76ers before the deadline, and the Clippers still made the postseason and then took two games from the Golden State Warriors in the playoff series. Remind us how Doc Rivers lost out on Coach of the Year to a guy who had Giannis Antetokounmpo in his lineup. Keeping the superstar pairing of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George rested for a run toward a title could cost Rivers some votes, but a wrong must be righted unless disaster drags the Clippers down the Western Conference standings.

The New Orleans Pelicans believe they can compete following Anthony Davis’ departure thanks to talents such as Jrue Holiday, Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, Derrick Favors and a rookie named Zion Williamson. New Orleans is a bit short on shooting, however, and that’s where J.J. Redick could make all the difference coming off the bench. The veteran guard, who has been in the league since 2006, could  return to converting over 40 percent from deep if he remains a member of the team’s second unit and sees his minutes drop. He averaged 31.3 MIN with the Philadelphia 76ers last season. 

What version of Fred VanVleet will the Toronto Raptors see throughout the campaign: the one who was part of the league’s disappointing “Bench Mob” during the regular season, or the guard  who made 14-of-17 three-pointers in three Eastern Conference Finals contests and who averaged 14.0 PPG during the NBA Finals? VanVleet may end the season in Toronto’s starting lineup, as the club recently gave Kyle Lowry a one-year extension. That decision should bolster Lowry's value on the trade market if the team wishes to deal him before the deadline. 

Per NBA.com , Brooklyn Nets guard Spencer Dinwiddie was averaging a career-high 17.2 PPG, 5.0 AST, and 2.5 REB until he was diagnosed with torn thumb ligaments in late January. Those numbers likely wouldn’t have been good enough for him to beat Lou Williams, but he could better those values now that he’s coming in for Kyrie Irving rather than D'Angelo Russell. One cannot envision Dinwiddie earning the award if the Brooklyn Nets somehow miss the postseason, which could happen if Irving is sidelined for a considerable amount of time. On paper, however, Brooklyn is better than the team that competed in the postseason last spring. Can Dinwiddie improve his PPG  average by 4.2 a second straight year? 

Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell were already a formidable duo, and that was before the Los Angeles Clippers acquired Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Harrell finished third in Sixth Man of the Year voting for the 2018-19 season following a  career year. The 25-year-old is now about to begin a contract season. Harrell can play multiple positions for Los Angeles, and he should make dramatic improvements as a defender with Leonard and George as teammates. He may never again have as good a chance to win this award. 

There are two schools of thought here. The Los Angeles Clippers added Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, meaning the team would be expected to compete for a championship even if Lou Williams wasn’t on the bench. Add in that teammate Montrezl Harrell could split the vote, and the three-time Sixth Man of the Year winner who has taken that honor home for each of the past two seasons may be on the outside looking in. Those predicting Williams will again be the league’s best sixth man would say he and Harrell will dominate second units with the new-look Clippers and also that the team receiving more national attention than at any point during the 2010s should provide Williams with opportunities to impress in spotlight contests. It’s still Lou Will’s award to lose until further notice.

Did Giannis Antetokounmpo lose out on Defensive Player of the Year last spring because voters didn’t want to give him both that honor and the MVP? According to Danny Chau of The Ringer, The Greek Freak was the best overall player on the league’s best regular-season team, and Antetokounmpo unquestionably was the Association’s top two-way force until Kawhi Leonard went off during the playoffs. Antetokounmpo ended the season third in ESPN’s defensive real plus-minus, and he was third in defensive win shares  (5.5) behind Rudy Gobert (5.7) and Andre Drummond (5.9). He shouldn’t be punished just because he enters the season as the league MVP. 

Mark Medina of USA Today  recently reported that Los Angeles Clippers coach Doc Rivers believes Paul George will miss the first 10 games as he recovers from offseason shoulder surgery, meaning George will have an uphill battle to compete for any honors. The then-28-year-old finished third in Defensive Player of the Year and MVP voting last spring, and he was the league’s best perimeter defender not named Kawhi Leonard. George and teammate Patrick Beverley could steal votes from each other, or George could emerge as the West’s top defensive player and swoop the award out of Rudy Gobert’s hands. 

Myles Turner led the NBA in blocks per game (2.7) and total blocks (199) for 2018-19, and the 23-year-old still hasn’t yet ascended to the level where the top defensive players in the league sit entering the middle of October 2019. Turner must get more rebounds to sniff the top three of Defensive Player of the Year voting — 7.3 REB probably won’t cut it — and we can only guess how Indiana will perform with both Turner and Domantas Sabonis in the starting lineup. Any problems with that game plan could prevent Turner from keeping up in the race. 

One thing potentially blocking (pun intended) Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid from winning the award is his health. Knee tendinitis affected him following All-Star weekend, and Dr. David Chao wrote for the San Diego Union-Tribune that he fears that it could become a “potential long-term issue.” Embiid played in 63 games in 2017-18, and he appeared in 64 contests in 2018-19, when he finished fourth in Defensive Player of the Year voting. Philadelphia could be the Eastern Conference’s top defensive team. Embiid will deserve the honor if that occurs — as long as he’s part of the equation. 

For the second season in a row, Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert won Defensive Player of the Year, and he finished the campaign atop ESPN’s  defensive real plus-minus category. There’s no reason to expect the 27-year-old will experience any drop off in his play. Perhaps the departure of Derrick Favors will affect Utah’s defense so much that Gobert loses votes, or maybe voter fatigue will cost the big man. Dwight Howard was the last player to win this award a third straight season ( 2011).

Kristaps Porzingis was an All-Star in February 2018 when he suffered a torn ACL and missed over a year-and-a-half of his career. Porzingis is back to 100 percent and receiving a new start with the Dallas Mavericks alongside Luka Doncic, and the pair  looked the part of playoff contenders during the preseason. When Lordzingis went down, he was shooting  39.5 percent from three and averaging nearly 23 PPG as a member of a lousy New York Knicks team. As  The Ringer’s Kevin O'Connor wrote, Doncic’s passing will remove pressure from Porzingis to create opportunities for himself. 

In May 2018  San Antonio Spurs guard Dejounte Murray made history by becoming the youngest player ever named to an All-Defensive Team. He missed out on an opportunity to evolve into the Association’s best point guard last season, as a torn ACL he suffered in October sidelined him for the entire campaign. Now healthy and ready to start, the 23-year-old could flirt with averaging a triple-double if he’s as good as the Spurs expected him to be at this time last year. 

For Nikola Jokic to compete for MVP honors, guard Jamal Murray may need to be in the Most Improved Player conversation. While the 22-year-old  averaged 21.3 PPG in the postseason, his three-point shooting fell from 36.7 percent during the regular season  to 33.7 percent, and he was a defensive liability against better competition. The Denver Nuggets decided that losing Murray wasn’t worth  having Anthony Davis for one season, which adds pressure to the to-be fourth-year pro to take a leap and be an All-Star throughout an entire season and not just during promising pockets. 

Making the 2020 All-Star squad is only the start of Donovan Mitchell’s goals for the upcoming campaign. In Year 2 of his career, Mitchell improved  his scoring (20.5 PPG to 23.8 PPG) and three-point shooting (34 percent to 36.2 percent), and he did so as his side’s top offensive weapon. Over the offseason, the Utah Jazz acquired Mike Conley and Bojan Bogdanovic, both of whom will create additional looks for Mitchell and allow the 23-year-old to concentrate on  strengthening his defensive skills. 

Think back to late May 2018. The Boston Celtics nearly downed LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals, and then-rookie forward Jayson Tatum  averaged 17.9 PPG and 4.1 REB, and he seemed on the verge of superstardom. Then, the Kyrie Irving circus  sunk Boston before Irving's move to the Brooklyn Nets. Tatum now gets a fresh start with Kemba Walker as a teammate, and Walker has shown zero signs that he’ll be anything but a positive in the lineup, on the court and behind the scenes. Tatum could get to where many believed he’d be by last April.

We decided to start with a sleeper Rookie of the Year candidate since there’s such a clear-cut favorite to win the award (more on him later). The Atlanta Hawks shouldn’t ask Cam Reddish to mature ahead of schedule since the team has other young pieces like Trae Young, John Collins and fellow rookie De'Andre Hunter, and Reddish could emerge as a dark horse if the 6-foot-8 guard with a  wingspan over 7-feet locates a pro jumper and converts well over 35.6 percent of his attempts. As John Schuhmann of NBA.com  wrote, rookies surveyed selected Reddish and not Zion Williamson as their pick to have the best career among players in the 2019 draft class. 

The good news for Cleveland Cavaliers guard Darius Garland is that he could have a better rookie season than Collin Sexton, who finished  fifth  in ROTY voting last spring. Unfortunately for the 20-year-old, the Cavs are a project, at absolute best, that could post the league’s worst record if the franchise sells pieces such as Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson. While Garland can score all over the floor, we’re not sold on the first-year pro playing together with Sexton. He’ll need to be exponentially better than Sexton  on defense to receive enough votes. 

New York Knicks guard RJ Barrett begins the season at or near the top of the second tier of rookies, similar to where players like Collin Sexton and Deandre Ayton ended the 2018-19 campaign. Can the 19-year-old silence those who doubt his first-year efficiency and find a three-point shot? Barrett converted a paltry 30.8 percent (73-237) of his attempts beyond the arc at Duke. That won’t cut it in a race that’s already determined in the eyes of many.

Memphis Grizzlies guard Ja Morant could match Trae Young and lead all  rookies  in assists and total points for an entire season and still not win Rookie of the Year. Like Young, Morant begins October already up against it, as no first-year pro is as watched, praised and scrutinized as Zion Williamson. Morant will turn the ball over a lot — we wouldn’t be shocked if he averaged 4.0 turnovers per game — and we aren’t sure he’s going to score enough to make the race an actual conversation. Morant will have to outperform teammate Jaren Jackson Jr. throughout the season to steal votes from Zion. 

Generational. It’s a word commonly associated with New Orleans Pelicans forward Zion Williamson, the Association’s most hyped rookie since LeBron James and a 19-year-old who checked in at No. 42 in  ESPN’s list of the top 100 NBA players for the upcoming campaign before he played a second of meaningful pro basketball. As Jeremy Woo of Sports Illustrated explained, Williamson played like a dominant force in early preseason action, and everybody asked by SI.com named him as the favorite to win ROTY. Barring an unforeseen injury or some other setback, Williamson will lead all debuting players in multiple categories, including scoring. Those wagering on this award shouldn’t overthink it. 

Anthony Davis finished third in MVP voting for the 2017-18 season, but he wasn’t even a candidate last spring after he attempted to force an exit from the New Orleans Pelicans. This isn’t to suggest the forward who became the eighth-youngest player to reach 10,000 career points last November wasn’t tremendous in 2018-19. He averaged  25.9 PPG, career-highs in REB (12.0) and AST (3.9) and shot 51.7 percent from the floor. Davis now has LeBron James as a Los Angeles Lakers teammate, meaning the 26-year-old will play in more than enough spotlighted and nationally televised games to earn votes with stellar performances. 

Fans obsessed with absorbing everything NBA have probably already encountered “Nikola Jokic for MVP” online rallies. Scott Rafferty of NBA.com  named the Denver Nuggets center as one of his top candidates for the 2019-20 award. As Rafferty pointed out, Jokic could become the first center since Wilt Chamberlain to  average at least eight assists per contest, and the 24-year-old who is already one of the greatest passing big men in history showed during the 2017-18 campaign that he can shoot over 39 percent (111-280) from three. Jokic is the least-flashy candidate spotlighted here, and that could be what prevents him from earning enough votes next spring. 

ESPN’s Zach Lowe  believes guard Stephen Curry will win the scoring title without Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson in the Golden State Warriors lineup. Per  Drew Shiller of NBC Sports, Kevin Arnovitz of ESPN said Curry will win the scoring title and the MVP as long as the 31-year-old appears in 66 regular-season contests. Before the Warriors acquired Durant in July 2016, Curry was the unanimous MVP who, per ESPN’s Marc Stein, became only the third player in league history to shoot 90 percent from the charity stripe, at least 45 percent from beyond the arc and 50 percent from the field during a campaign. Curry repeating that would make him a favorite to reclaim the MVP trophy.

For a moment, let’s choose to be positive about James Harden and Russell Westbrook teaming up with the Houston Rockets. Let’s assume Westbrook won’t let his regressing shot sink the Rockets and that he’ll take a back seat to the 30-year-old who is the  two-time reigning scoring champion. Harden wasn’t shy about slyly making a case for his MVP candidacy when speaking with Alex Shultz of GQ during the offseason. If Harden again averages over 36 PPG AND the Rockets are at or near the top of the conference standings, voting for any other candidate could be silly. 

Betting against the reigning MVP who happens to be an evolving 24-year-old, 6-foot-11 unicorn who averaged 27.7 PPG, 12.5 REB and 5.9 AST while shooting 57.8 percent from the field seems unwise. Giannis Antetokounmpo may not win the scoring title, but he could again average a double-double while scoring 30 points a night if he can improve his jumper. As Dane Delgado of NBC Sports explained, better opposition, specifically the Toronto Raptors and Kawhi Leonard, exposed Antetokounmpo’s weaknesses during the postseason. Will teams be able to do that throughout the campaign and prevent him from repeating as MVP?