How Long Until Luka Dončić Wins His First MVP?

His physical condition was at its lowest point during the 2024-25 season, but Dončić still managed to average 28.2 points, 8.1 assists, and 7.5 rebounds in his first 28 games wearing purple & gold. The transformation was a good sign for the upcoming season, and their new cast of characters ensures the Lakers maintain a spot in the upper echelon of the Western Conference.

As the front office looks over the horizon, it’s apparent the Lakers will find success after LeBron. One looming question remains, though: How far can Luka really take them? He’s been considered a top-five player since 2020, earning a spot on the All-NBA First Team five times. 

He has also finished in the top five of MVP voting three times in his seven seasons. Nikola Jokić, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander have taken home the MVP awards since 2019.  

Jokić, Antetokounmpo and Embiid are all over the age of 30. SGA just won his first MVP at the age of 26, which is how old Dončić is. It’s only a matter of time until Dončić claims the award for himself. The question is: How many will he win and how long will it take?

Analyzing The Competition Of Dončić’s Era

Luka’s generation consists of multiple players who are destined for the Hall of Fame, including newly crowned MVP Gilgeous-Alexander. He led the Oklahoma City Thunder to their first NBA Championship and was awarded Finals MVP after averaging 30 points, 5.6 assists, and 4.6 rebounds. 

SGA spearheads the best team in the league at, now, 27 years old, so he will always be a strong contender for the prestigious title. He will constantly pose a major threat to Luka’s MVP hopes in the Western Conference, and when Jayson Tatum returns from his Achilles injury, he’ll re-establish himself as the most dominant forward in the Eastern Conference

The competition forces Luka to rise to an ever-higher level to separate himself from his peers. Thankfully for him, the stars have aligned for him to have an MVP-caliber season.

There are high expectations from some of the most prominent Lakers’ reporters in the L.A. media. Locked On Lakers hosts Brian and Andy Kamentzky discussed Luka’s chances for the MVP race during their Aug. 6 livestream.

Predicting Luka’s Crowning Moment

Dončić has the third-best odds at +450 to win the award, according to Spectrum SportsNet. SGA is the betting favorite at +200. If he were to win two MVPs, Luka would be the third Laker to ever win the award multiple times. 

It’s obvious the MVP race will be an uphill battle given the generational talents in this era, so he’ll likely win MVP around 2028 to 2030, when he is in his absolute prime.

As the CBA increases every summer, his supporting cast will also improve, especially now that Mark Walters’ ownership group is set to take over. They will give Luka whatever he needs to succeed. It’s his own fault if he’s unable to secure the award.