NBA odds after Damian Lillard deal: Should you put your bucks behind the Bucks?

Before the news dropped, the NBA championship market was mostly static because the betting public is too focused on the NFL and college football right now. Milwaukee was priced as high as +850 to win the NBA title in 2024, but those odds disappeared in a matter of moments. Now that the dust has settled, the Bucks are +360 betting favorites to win the championship at FanDuel.

Now, you could bet this new number if you want. I can't stop you. But you've already lost a mountain of value from the line move. Unless you were quick to the trigger and grabbed the price before sportsbooks locked their title odds, you're getting less than half the value you would've gotten just a few hours ago.

Tons of bets are pouring in to push Milwaukee's odds even lower. If you buy the Bucks at this price, you'll likely be grabbing them at their floor. Instead, look for teams that might be at their price ceiling because of this move.

For instance, the Denver Nuggets are still the most well-rounded team in the NBA for my money. They also play in a weaker conference, yet their title odds dropped to +500 on FanDuel. Or what about the Miami Heat? Miami was +900 to win the title because it was the heavy favorite to land Lillard in a trade, but now that the Heat are +2800 because that dream is officially dead.

Really? A Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo-led team, which reached the NBA Finals last year and made the Eastern Conference Finals in three of the last four seasons, is less likely to win the title than the Philadelphia 76ers, Los Angeles Clippers, Dallas Mavericks and Memphis Grizzlies? I don't think so.

When blockbuster trades create futures line moves like this, ignore the hype and look for the value. The value, as it stands now, surely isn't on the Bucks.