The top storyline for every first-round series of the NBA playoffs

Orlando might as well pack their bags and head home with the Wizards, Grizzlies, Suns, Spurs, Pelicans and Kings because there's no way in hell they'll even challenge the Bucks in the first round. The only major storyline to pay attention to in this series is to see whether the Bucks can get rolling again against a below average team. Despite having one of the more impressive halves of basketball in the bubble (their comeback win against the Heat), the Bucks were only 3-5 in the bubble and only 1-4 in their last five games before the shutdown. They'll stomp the Magic in four or five games no matter how well they play - this is that big of a mismatch - but Milwaukee, much like the Lakers, should really look to crush their first round opponent to get their mojo back. If they're not winning most of these games by double-digits, Bucks fans should be a little concerned if they have to face the Heat in round two. 

Prediction: Bucks, 4-0

After playing like a superstar for the first 53 games of his 2019-20 season (23.6 ppg., 7.5 rpg. 46-36-80 shooting splits), Pascal Siakam struggled his seven bubble games, averaging only 16.9 ppg., 5.7 rpg. and shooting a pedestrian 39-36-71 on his shooting splits. Were his struggles merely a mini-slump lost amid the Raptors' dominant 7-1 stretch in the seeding games? Or are the Raptors going to have difficulty in the latter rounds of the playoffs because Spicy P isn't quite ready to be the alpha dog that goes toe-to-toe with the likes of Jayson Tatum, Giannis Antetokounmpo and LeBron James or Kawhi Leonard? If it's the former (and Toronto better hope it's the former if they plan on defending their title), then we're going to see a locked-in Siakam take it upon himself to slow down the emerging Caris LeVert, who averaged 25 ppg., 6.7 apg. and 5 rpg. in the seeding games.  

Prediction: Raptors, 4-1

Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown look ready to be the Eastern Conference version of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Kemba Walker and Gordon Hayward look healthy again. With the Sixers limping into the playoffs without Ben Simmons, the Celtics' excellent seven-man rotation (Tatum, Brown, Walker, Hayward, Daniel Theis, Marcus Smart and Enes Kanter) should be able to take down Philly in five, maybe six games. 

But, I can't stop thinking about Joel Embiid in this series. Embiid talked all offseason about how he was going to win the MVP and Defensive Player of the Year and wanted to win the title. Then, he went out and averaged 4.3 fewer points, 1.9 fewer rebounds, 0.6 fewer blocks and played 4.0 fewer minutes per game than he did last season. If Embiid is the super-duper star and future Hall of Famer that he believes he is, then it's about time he does something extraordinary - like put the short-handed Sixers on his back and pull an epic upset against a rival in the playoffs. That's the biggest storyline in this series.

Prediction: Celtics, 4-2

My guess is that TJ Warren another Antawn Jamison - a good offensive player who will occasionally go on an incinerating multi-game hot streak that will leave you speechless, but ultimately, nothing more than a secondary scorer on a good team. But maybe he's better than that? Maybe his scoring outburst in the Orlando Bubble (31 ppg. on 58-52-89 shooting splits) was an early glimpse of a future scoring title contender? If he's more of the latter, which isn't as crazy as you might think (he's quietly averaged 21.3 points per-36 minutes on 51-38-79 shooting splits the past three seasons) we'll see another glimpse of it during this series as he'll be squaring off against his nemesis, Jimmy Butler. Back in January, the Warren-Butler beef was amusing Twitter content for 24 hours. Now, because of Warren's emergence, it's the storyline in what should be a decent series between the Pacers and Heat. Warren only scored 31 total points in his three matchups against Butler and the Heat this season - all of them losses. He'll have to do much better than that to help the Pacers pull off an upset, and he'll have to help slow down Butler, who isn't exactly a slouch on the offensive end either (19.9 ppg., 6.7 rpg., 6.0 apg.).

Prediction: Heat, 4-2

Nobody should ever forget what Bubble MVP Damian Lillard did during the seeding games of the Orlando Bubble. Like Atlas carrying the weight of the world on his back, Lillard willed the Blazers to a 6-2 record in those games, nailing big shot after big shot (some from the damn logo), and averaged an absurd 37.6 ppg. and 9.6 apg. on 50-44-89 shooting splits. Every time the Blazers looked as though they were going to fall apart, Lillard, or sometimes CJ McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic, Carmelo Anthony or Gary Trent, would step up and make a big play. It was spectacular to watch. 

Unfortunately for the Blazers, after Saturday's win against Memphis in the Play-In Tournament, Lillard and Nurkic (who tragically lost his grandmother prior to the game), looked absolutely spent. And McCollum has been playing with a small fracture in his back ("Spinal!"). Do Lillard & Co. have anything left in the tank? Lillard thinks they do. But the fact that, including the Play-In win against Memphis, seven of the Blazers' nine games were decided by five points or fewer (five of them wins) would suggest that the team is running on fumes. Even more concerning is the fact that the team has given up an average of 123.2 ppg. inside the bubble and now will have a fresh LeBron James and Anthony Davis to contend with. If Dame continues this torrid streak, the Blazers have a shot, but if he falters whatsoever, LA will steamroll them.

Prediction: Lakers, 4-1

The Clippers are literally the worst matchup in the entire NBA for the Mavericks. They have the two best wing defenders in the league in Kawhi Leonard and Paul George to harass Luka Doncic for 48 minutes a game. They have plus-level players for every spot in their rotation. They're intimidating. They're experienced. And they're 3-0 against the Mavs this year, and have made Doncic an inefficient player in those games.

The Mavericks, on the other hand, are young, inexperienced and a little too reliant upon Doncic to keep their record-setting offense humming at all times. Dallas finished the regular season with the 18th-ranked defense in the league, and showed no improvement on that end in the bubble (side note: how the f%$# do you not double-team Damian Lillard in the fourth quarter of a game where he goes for 61 points!?!). Had the Mavs won that Blazers game and potentially moved up to the six-seed, I'd feel much better about their chances of pulling an upset in the first round. But it just isn't going to happen against these Clippers.

Prediction: Clippers, 4-1

This matchup features two star centers - Nikola Jokic and Rudy Gobert - that are polar opposites. Jokic is one of the most skilled big men ever and essentially a point guard trapped in a WWE wrestler's body. Gobert, one of the tallest and longest players to play in the NBA, is one of the most dominant rim protectors ever and a rim-runner on offense (no matter what he thinks). Styles make fights. And if Jokic wins the battle, the Nuggets will assuredly win the series as they have a more talented, deeper roster. If Gobert wins the battle, the Jazz will still need a good-to-great series from Donovan Mitchell as well as above-average production from Mike Conley (whoops - he's out at least the first two games after leaving the bubble for the birth of his child), Joe Ingles and Jordan Clarkson. Royce O'Neale will also need to play an important role in slowing down the likes of Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray, the former of which made the Second Team All-Bubble.

Prediction: Nuggets, 4-1

This will almost certainly be the most entertaining first round series. Hopefully, Russell Westbrook will only miss a game or two and return close to full strength for this series because it will be a fascinating one. Westbrook goes up against the franchise that he was the face of for the first 11 seasons of his career. James Harden, as everyone knows, was also a member of the Thunder for the first couple seasons of his career. Harden is the face of the isolation-heavy analytics movement whereas his friend-turned-adversary, Chris Paul, is the Point God and the face of what a traditional NBA point guard used to be. Like Harden and Westbrook, CP3 will be extra motivated to exact his revenge on a Rockets team that dealt him away last summer. Which player will ultimately get his revenge? I'll take CP3 because the solid roster around him (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Dennis Schröder, Danilo Gallinari, Steven Adams, Lu Dort, etc.) should be able to wear out Harden all series, especially if Westbrook misses multiple games. If Houston were to win, expect Harden to throw up multiple 40-point triple-doubles and play spectacular basketball down the stretch of each win. 

Prediction: Thunder, 4-3