Three key stats to know entering Game 3 of the NBA Finals

Every statistical metric indicates the Pacers should take a 2-1 lead over the Thunder in Game 3 of the 2025 NBA Finals on Wednesday. 

In these playoffs, the Pacers are 6-2 at home, where they play at a faster pace (99.46 to 97.93), average more fast-break threes (16.8 to 13.3) and their bench players perform significantly better. 

Yet, the Thunder enter Game 3 as 5.5-point favorites, a testament to their dominant 81-19 record (including regular season). Here are three numbers to know ahead of the big game. 

Game 3 winner is nearly a shoo-in to win it all

In NBA Finals history, teams that win Game 3 of a tied series prevail 80.5 percent of the time (33-8). This stat is even more favorable for the away team; in this case, OKC. In 23 previous instances, the road team won 91.3 percent of the series (21-2) after taking a 2-1 lead with a Game 3 victory. Meanwhile, home teams prevail 66.7 percent of the time (12-6). The most recent example of this came in 2023 when the Nuggets took a 2-1 lead with a Game 3 road win before closing out the Heat in five games.

Both have losing records in Game 3s

Both the Thunder (13-5) and Pacers (13-5) have struggled in Game 3s of the 2025 NBA playoffs despite their .722 winning rates. While the Thunder (1-2) lost to the Nuggets and Timberwolves in the previous two rounds, the Pacers (0-3) suffered a clean sweep against the Bucks, Cavaliers and Knicks en route to the NBA Finals. Both rebounded with Game 4 wins before winning their respective series. 

Pacers are invincible after a loss

Since March 10, Rick Carlisle's men have been a perfect 8-0 after a loss (including 4-0 in the regular season). In those eight games, they've averaged 130.5 points at 51.8 percent shooting, while dishing out 32.9 assists. Add to that, they've pummeled teams by a margin of 17.1 points. Look no further than Game 4 against the Cavaliers (20-point win) and Game 6 against the Knicks (17-point win) when they bounced back after a loss in resounding fashion. These numbers demonstrate Carlisle's ability to make adjustments after losses.