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Mar 19, 2026; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Utah Jazz head coach Will Hardy watches play against the Milwaukee Bucks during the first half at Delta Center. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-Imagn Images Rob Gray-Imagn Images

Utah Jazz Draft Lottery Odds Starting to Solidify

Originally posted on Utah Jazz on SI | By Jared Koch | Last updated Mar 29, 2026 9:36 AM ET

After a long season with a key focus honed in on maximizing their draft lottery ping-pong ball combinations for later this May, the time is finally winding down before the Utah Jazz can officially see their odds cemented for what's set to be one of the best incoming rookie classes in recent memory.

And thanks to how the Jazz's record has panned out after over 70 games of action, Utah's sitting in a pretty good position for where their pick could end up for that long-awaited drawing, all things considered.

How the Jazz's Lottery Odds are Shaping Up

Currently, the Jazz stand as the fifth-worst team in the NBA at just over two weeks to go with a record of 21-54. The only teams to sit below Utah each have less than 20 wins on the season: the Indiana Pacers, Brooklyn Nets, Washington Wizards, and Sacramento Kings.

The Jazz are only two games behind the fourth-worst Kings, which gives a glimmer of hope to jump up to the fourth-best lottery odds instead. But with such little time left in the regular season, the odds that Sacramento will pull off a couple more improbable wins in their own tanking efforts to help Utah out are starting to dwindle with it.

But on the bright side, there's not much room for those behind the Jazz to move up themselves either. The sixth-worst Dallas Mavericks, at 24-50, are 3.5 games behind Utah, which leaves it pretty unlikely that they'll be jumped in a late-season standings maneuver either.

Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

That means, more than likely, the Jazz are shaping up to have top-five odds at the first-overall pick for a second straight season, which would be a stellar outcome in more ways than one.

For one, having what would be 10.5% odds at landing the number-one pick, and their first-ever first-overall pick in franchise history, is a roaring success for the Jazz's "tanking" efforts throughout the year.

If able to cash in and move up the board, it makes any and all $500,000 fines taken on over the course of the season money well spent, and also silences any preseason chatter that Utah couldn't rebuild (or more importantly, tank) successfully with an All-Star like Lauri Markkanen on the roster throughout.

But the more important factor of Utah's lottery odds landing within the top-five spots lies within the outstanding protections tacked onto their first-round pick in this year's draft.

As of now, the Jazz's 2026 first-rounder is currently in the hands of the OKC Thunder protected top-eight, meaning if the selection falls within the first eight picks, Utah gets to retain their selection, and anything outside of the top eight would go to the Thunder.

If the Jazz were to finish with the fifth-best odds at the number-one pick, that would make for a 99.4% chance that they retain their protected first-round pick, and only a 0.6% that their pick would fall to nine, thus being claimed by the Thunder. Jumping into the fourth-best odds would guarantee their retention altogether, but top-five is pretty close to a guarantee.

Depending on what lottery night has in store for the Jazz, and whether their fate lies within moving up or down the board remains to be seen. But the most important takeaway remains that Utah will, more likely than not, get to keep their first-round pick after months of extensive efforts to do so.

Now, it'll give the Jazz a nice lottery ticket to enter the top four picks of this year's loaded draft; a jump up the board that would be another huge lift for Utah to make their long-awaited leap back into the postseason picture come next year.

This article first appeared on Utah Jazz on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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