Warriors Receive Overly Optimistic Preseason Record Prediction

Using statistics of his own and others, Pelton predicted all 30 NBA teams' records for the 2025-26 season, with his stats projected to the Warriors at 56.1 wins for the upcoming year. Coming out to around a 56-26 record, with the only team being predicted higher being the Oklahoma City Thunder, the reigning 2025 NBA Champions.

"The Warriors might have the single most surprising projection for any team, nearly four wins clear of the non-Oklahoma City field," Pelton wrote. "Having added RAPM superstar Jimmy Butler III for a full season -- they won at a 63-win clip (76.7%) with Butler in the lineup last season -- the Warriors also have 11 players who rate better than league average, tied with the Thunder for most of any team."

How Could Pelton's Prediction Come True?

While Pelton does point out Butler leading the Warriors to a 63-win clip when he was in the lineup last season, he did just play 30 games in Golden State. However, it's clear that his addition helped unlock players on the team, specifically Brandin Podziemski and Moses Moody.

If Golden State is to be a 56-win team next season, or even in that range, health with their star players is obviously a key to that success. But looking beyond the obvious, they'll need to either see strong production from Jonathan Kuminga, likely as a bench scorer, or be able to flip him into players or a player at the deadline that better suit this roster.

Furthermore, Podziemski and Moody continuing to improve will also be important for Golden State if they want to reach that 56-win mark. Podziemski has received early praise throughout training camp so far, while Moody shone in Golden State's preseason opener against the Los Angeles Lakers.

Is it impossible for Golden State to win 56 games next season? No. But the reality is that a lot of things will have to go right, not only for the Warriors, but for luck to fall in their favor with other teams around the league.