What preseason odds of previous NBA champions tells us about this year's contenders

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However, digging further, all NBA champions in an 82-game season since 2000-01 had over-under win totals of 48.5 or greater. Based on that threshold, only six teams could be considered a threat to win the title this year: the 76ers (48.5), Cavaliers (50.5), Suns (51.5), Nuggets (52.5), Bucks (53.5) and Celtics (55.5).

The field appears a lot more wide open than that. Anyone who wants to count out LeBron James and the Lakers or Stephen Curry and the Warriors should do so at their own peril. For what it's worth, the Lakers and Warriors have their over-under win totals set at 47.5, so not too far off the 48.5-mark.

The Miami Heat are another team that always seem to perform well in the postseason. While they whiffed on landing point guard Damian Lillard, they are far from an afterthought in the Eastern Conference after making a run to the Finals last season as the eighth seed.

The 76ers and Cavaliers are the most surprising teams that fit the bill of a future NBA champion. Philadelphia has a James Harden-sized distraction that could sink its season while Cleveland flamed out in the first round of the playoffs last year against the Knicks. 

The numbers say one thing, but the season could tell a different story. Ascending teams such as the Jazz, Kings, Thunder and Timberwolves will have a role in how 2023-24 unfolds. Anything seems possible for Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs. Plus, what will the Pelicans look like with Zion Williamson ideally available for the majority of the season?

And that's just in the Western Conference.

Rising Eastern Conference stars Paolo Banchero (Magic), Mikal Bridges (Nets) and Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers) will be fun to watch and could make their teams much better in a hurry. Hawks head coach Quin Snyder reached the playoffs in his final six seasons in Utah and first in Atlanta after he landed the job with 21 games left in the 2022-23 regular season. With a full offseason under his belt and the team led by two-time All-Star Trae Young, the Hawks should make some noise.

Will any of those teams come close to sniffing a championship this year? Most likely not. But that's the beauty of the beginning of the season. Everyone has hope, despite what recent history tells us about how narrow the field of championship contenders really is.