49ers QB Brock Purdy proved unlucky in one category by PFF

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy threw 13 interceptions during his injury-shortened 2025 season, including the playoffs. According to analytics site Pro Football Focus (PFF), only 12 of his passes were deemed turnover-worthy, yet nine of those throws resulted in interceptions.

The fact that Purdy recorded just 12 turnover-worthy throws all season highlights his efficiency and ball security. However, an unusually high 75 percent of those plays resulted in interceptions. PFF analyst Mark Chichester noted that the 49ers quarterback was among the unluckiest passers in the NFL in that regard (h/t to Oliver G. of Niners Wire).

To measure interception variance, PFF created a Net Luck metric that compares turnover-worthy throws to actual interceptions. The NFL's luckiest quarterback in 2025 was Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford, who recorded 21 turnover-worthy throws but threw only eight interceptions. That 38.1 percent conversion rate resulted in a league-best +6.8 Net Luck rating.

Meanwhile, Purdy finished as the second-unluckiest quarterback in the NFL with a -4.5 Net Luck rating. Only Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Geno Smith posted a worse mark at -4.7.

Chichester noted that no quarterback in the 2025 dataset was hurt more by interception variance than Purdy.

"The bad breaks extended beyond his turnover-worthy throws, too, as four additional interceptions came on passes that were not deemed turnover-worthy," Chichester wrote. "Nearly every form of interception variance swung against him. His official 95.0 passer rating would have climbed to 100.7 under league-average interception luck."

Purdy's turf toe injury, which he battled for much of the season, likely didn't help matters.

Perhaps even more surprising, Chichester found that Purdy ranks among the unluckiest quarterbacks of the past decade. His career -7.7 Net Luck rating trails only Jameis Winston (-14.2), Jimmy Garoppolo (-11.0), Baker Mayfield (-8.7), and Ryan Fitzpatrick (-8.1) among qualifying quarterbacks.

"Brock Purdy's placement near the top of the unlucky list is perhaps the most consequential finding in the entire study," Chichester wrote. "Despite only four seasons in the sample, his 65.1% career turnover-worthy-throw-to-interception rate is the highest among quarterbacks with at least 1,500 pass attempts — more than 16 percentage points above league average.

"Normally, over a multi-year sample that large, the variance begins to stabilize. It hasn't for Purdy. The result is a quarterback whose interception totals have consistently run worse than the process suggests.

"If you viewed Purdy's recent seasons strictly through the lens of the box score, this model would argue that the actual quarterback play has been meaningfully better than the interception totals indicate."

The 49ers reshaped their wide receiver room this offseason in hopes of helping Purdy and the passing attack. While veterans Jauan Jennings and Kendrick Bourne moved on, and Brandon Aiyuk is expected to do the same, San Francisco added Mike Evans and Christian Kirk while also drafting De'Zhaun Stribling.

The 49ers are counting on those additions to elevate the offense in 2026. If PFF's findings are any indication, a little better luck for Purdy wouldn't hurt either.