After having various struggles in the first nine years of his career, Geno Smith is coming off an absolutely brilliant season for the Seattle Seahawks. He seems to have found a home with Pete Carroll in the Pacific Northwest.
What that said, finances could dictate whether that home is temporary. Smith, 32, is set to hit NFL free agency in March. He’s going to be among the top quarterbacks available on the open market. That’s now magnified following Tom Brady’s somewhat surprising decision to retire.
Supply and demand will certainly play a role in whether Smith returns to the Seahawks. It led to previous speculation that general manager John Schneider and Co. could simply opt to place the franchise tag on the former second-round pick. Now, we’re not too sure.
“The two sides want to keep it going in Seattle, but comments from coach Pete Carroll have given the impression that Seattle might not use the franchise tag on Smith in the absence of a multiyear deal.”
ESPN’s Brady Henderson on Geno Smith
There are several factors that could lead to Seattle allowing Smith to test free agency. The franchise tag value for a quarterback is slated to be $32.42 million in 2023. While Seattle has the cap room to take on this hit, it’s a huge sum to pay out over one year. Typically, long-term contracts tend to push back huge cap hits to latter years.
Secondly, Seattle boasts the fifth pick (acquired from Denver in the Russell Wilson trade) and the 20th selection in the 2023 NFL Draft. It is in prime position to potentially trade up with the Chicago Bears for the first pick and Alabama’s Bryce Young. Standing pat at five could also net Seattle’s former Ohio State star C.J. Stroud.
Geno Smith will have a big market if he hits free agency
There’s significant risk in letting Smith test free agency. His market could spiral out of control with a limited number of starter-caliber quarterbacks and the excess of NFL teams likely in the market for a QB1. This number could stand at 12 when all is said and done. Hence, supply and demand.
- Geno Smith stats (2022): 70% completion, 4,282 yards, 30 TD, 11 INT, 100.9 QB rating
There’s a scenario in play that suggests Smith could receive offers of $35-plus million annually. That’s roughly what Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins and Jared Goff of the Detroit Lions are earning. This would put him in the range of the top-12 highest-paid quarterbacks on a per-year basis.
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