Analytics Show Solution To Kyren Williams' Fumbling Problem

I have long theorized that Williams' fumbling issues were a result of his heavy workload, but to find the true answers, Rams On SI, with data from RG.org, put Williams under the microscope to determine the actual reasons.

This research was conducted through a collaborative effort between Rams On SI and RG Media. Data collection and analysis were carried out by Sukhman Singh.

With seven minutes left in the Divisional Round, Kyren Williams broke free for a 30-yard run into Eagles territory. One play later, the ball was on the ground. It was his seventh fumble of the season — and arguably the costliest. That moment didn’t just stall a go-ahead drive; it reignited a conversation that had followed him all year: Was the Rams’ lead back being overworked? Was his heavy snap load contributing to ball security issues?

To find out, we dug into the game logs, examined every fumble, and ran the numbers. The data tells a story that goes beyond surface narratives.

1. What the Numbers Say

Williams played all 16 regular-season games, logging 888 offensive snaps — good for an 86.7% snap share, among the highest for any back in the league. In that span, he recorded:

• 350 touches (316 rushes, 34 receptions)
• 1,481 scrimmage yards
• 5 fumbles (3 lost)
• 1 fumble every 70 touches, or 1 every 177.6 snaps

Verdict: There’s no strong statistical link between high snap counts and fumbles.

2. When and How the Fumbles Happened

Williams fumbled in five regular-season games and twice in the playoffs. Every turnover stemmed from contact — defenders punching or ripping the ball loose — often against teams with high forced-fumble rates:

• Week 5 vs GB: Fourth-quarter punch-out by Kingsley Enagbare (Packers: top 10 in forced fumbles).
• Week 10 vs MIA: Fumbled after a Rams INT; Dolphins scored.
• Week 12 vs PHI: Two fumbles, one lost. Eagles led the NFL in forced fumbles.
• Divisional @ PHI: Fourth-quarter strip in the snow on a critical drive.

Key Point: These weren’t random. They happened at high-leverage moments, often against elite strip defenses.

3. Compared to Other RB1s

Williams is slightly below average in ball security but not outside the norm for a workhorse back.

4. Snap Volume Wasn’t the Problem

In Weeks 14 and 15, Williams had 31 touches in back-to-back games with no fumbles, gaining nearly 210 combined yards. In the playoffs, he played 117 snaps (94.4% share) and averaged 5.2 yards per carry, losing only one fumble in a snow game in Philadelphia.

Sean McVay didn’t reduce his workload. Instead, he reinforced trust. The result? Zero fumbles from Week 13 through the Wild Card round. (Keep in mind during this time, the Rams passing offense struggled, resulting in Williams being given more responsibility)

5. Final Word: Not Fatigue. Just Football.

Kyren Williams didn’t fumble because he was tired. He fumbled when elite defenses made plays — often in high-stakes moments that magnified the impact. From a performance and ball security standpoint, he remains one of the league’s most consistent backs.

Snap count doesn’t explain the fumbles. Timing, opponent quality, and moment-to-moment execution do.

With this research, the solution to curbing Williams' fumbles in critical times is to give the ball to Jarquez Hunter. It really is that simple. However, there is a bit more to that as the Rams can also employ certain strategies to minimize risk.

As the numbers have shown, Williams was excellent at maintaining possession of the football, except against teams who know how to commit turnovers.

The Rams can structure their carries to load Williams up against non-turnover inducing teams while Hunter could take on the Packers and the Eagles, teams that know how to rip the ball out.

In the same breath, from a play calling standpoint, the Rams could call plays for Williams that takes him more towards the sidelines against turnover-inducing opponents in order to increase the likelihood of football retention.

But with all that being said, it's fair to say that Williams' fumbling problem has been blown a bit out of proportion, heightened by the team's playoff loss to the Eagles, and considering Williams in engaged in contract extension talks, this could come in handy for Williams to help put more millions in his bank account.