Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction, Picks, Odds for AFC Championship Game

• Bills vs. Chiefs spread: Chiefs -1.5 (-115), Bills +1.5 (-105)
• Bills vs. Chiefs over/under: 48.5 (-110o / -110u)
• Bills vs. Chiefs moneyline: Chiefs -130, Bills +110
• Bills vs. Chiefs best bet: Under 48.5 -110
  

My Bills vs. Chiefs best bet is on the under. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.

Spread

I have no play on either side of the spread.

Moneyline

Like the spread, I’m passing on both moneylines.

Over/Under

The game total number has been on a ride this week. It opened at 49, dipped to 47.5 and then ticked back up to 48.5.

The under my best bet for this game. I’m good with betting under 48.5, but keep an eye out for potentially a better number as there’s a chance the public pushes it back to 49.

My Pick: Under 48.5

Bills vs. Chiefs AFC Championship Game Preview

The Chiefs are meeting the Bills in the AFC playoffs for the fourth time in five seasons. Past meetings have not gone well for Buffalo, with three consecutive postseason losses in the Patrick Mahomes/Josh Allen rivalry.

That’s interesting because Allen and the Bills have had the Chiefs’ number during the regular season. Buffalo has won four straight regular-season meetings, including earlier this season when it beat Kansas City 30-21 at Highmark Stadium.

Most of those games have been fairly high scoring, with five of the last seven meetings producing at least 50 points, including the Chiefs’ epic 42-36 win in the 2021 AFC Divisional Round.

However, these are not the same teams. Many of the key offensive weapons that powered those games are either gone (Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis) or a step slower as they get in to the twilight of their career (Travis Kelce). Kansas City has largely won with defense over the past two seasons, and it allowed the third-fewest points per game this season (while ranking roughly league average offensively).

The Bills still have an explosive offense, finishing behind only the Lions in points per game this season. However, that figure is juiced by the fact that they played in a weak division — six games against the Jets, Dolphins and Patriots certainly helped. As did shootouts with poor defensive but explosive offensive teams like the Rams and Lions.

Considering that the Bills have the more explosive offense, the Chiefs should look to keep Buffalo off the field rather than exchange haymakers. While the weather isn’t expected to be particularly harsh, the conditions have reduced scoring by about 8% historically, according to RotoGrinders NFL WeatherEdge tool.

We’ve seen some movement on this total already this week after it opened at 49, dropped all the way to 47.5, and then bounced back to 48.5. My guess is sharp money initially hammered the under, but as the general betting public looks at this game they’re starting to push the total back up.

Obviously, I’d like to be aligned with the former side. I also want to get the best number possible, though. For that reason, I’m taking the under — but waiting a bit to see if the line continues to come up.

I’d be more than happy jumping on under 48.5 at -110 (the current line at DraftKings and Caesars), but I have a feeling we’ll be able to get another half-point or point if we wait until closer to kickoff.

My Pick: Under 48.5 (-110; DraftKings/Caesars)

Chiefs vs. Bills Betting Trends

Chiefs vs. Bills Weather